The Money Bonzai has moved!

To all my regular followers,

The Money Bonzai now has a new home, and a new, professional-looking website, at http://www.moneybonzai.info. Although Blogspot was the perfect place when I started out blogging about my football picks and analysis, it has now outgrown its purpose. By migrating to a professional-looking, fully customizable site, I will hopefully be able to deliver a much better service, as well as having the freedom to adapt my website to my needs over time.

I am therefore going to stop posting on this Blogspot blog, and every of my picks, analysis, and articles will be on the new MoneyBonzai.info website.

As always, the service will remain free for all!

Best of luck to everyone, and may we all continue to make money from the Bookies!

Everton to Fire Blanks

WON +3.60

A good win on Sunday takes it 3 out of 3 for the weekend! Newcastle were somewhat lucky, Tottenham deserved a draw I thought. But as I said, the Toons' attack is getting stronger by the game.

On to Monday's sole game:

Match: Everton vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea to keep a clean sheet
Odds: 2.20 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

A small bet, as from experience its always cautious to limit the stakes on betting markets where I don't have that much experience in. I might be good at picking AvB results, but when it comes to over/unders and speciality markets like clean sheets I like to play it safe.

For me this looks like outstanding odds, as Chelsea have a formidable defense and clean sheets in many of their recent games. To top it off Everton really have no strikers for this match, with Tim Cahill set to play as a makeshift one. That was alright against Man City, as their defense is crap, plain to see in Sunday's match against WBA. Chelsea are a whole different prospect.

I also expect David Moyes to set his side up more cautiously, maybe playing two deep midfield players to control Lampard and Deco. This will probably have the effect of "abandoning" Cahill, who will be up front on his own.

For me the odds of Chelsea keeping a clean sheet above evens is a must bet.

21 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +4.1

A very good Saturday, with both picks winning. Sunderland were amazing in their demolition of Hull, although they left it quite late. Aston Villa left it late too, and West Ham did match them for most of the match, but Villa just had that extra quality in the counter attacks that made them so dangerous. Very dodgy defending though and leaky midfield, so I will be looking to oppose Villa in the coming weeks.

Today, there are only 3 matches to choose from. The top one, of course, is Arsenal vs Liveprool, but after spending quite alot of time analyzing it I'm not going to have a bet. The reason is that the odds seem fairly priced, and I can't really see one team being very dominant over the other. I favour Arsenal, but their odds are too short for me to back against a Liverpool side that does as well on the road as at home.

Man City should be a banker against WBA, if you look at the quality on both sides. WBA don't even have a Premiership striker anymore, and will struggle to score. However, Man City have dressing room instability, and are poor of late. Also, Robinho is very doubtful for this match plus they have had to travel back from Spain on Friday. So another match to watch and observe for future weeks.

That only leaves the last fixture:

Match: Newcastle vs Tottenham Hotspurs
Pick: Newcastle win (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.82 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Newcastle look like they are seriously shaping up and clicking together as a team. Their defense has become alot more solid in recent games, due to Kinnear imposing defensive training 4 days a week. In addition, as their attacking players come back to fitness, Owen has been getting a good supply of balls and rediscovering his deadly form. I believe Newcastle are on the cusp of turning their season around with a run of a few wins. Their 3-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend was a very convincing performance.

Tottenham have had their own revival too, but it looks to be running out of gas lately. There was the 2-2 draw midweek that followed the stalemate against Man Utd, where they didn't really create many chances. Only a few players were rested on Thursday, and it is a long way up to Newcastle. Spurs also have a defensive crisis, with King and Woodgate both big doubtfuls, and possibly no Modric, Lennon, and Jenas. Their makeshift rearguard did well last weekend, but that was against a Man Utd side that lacked any sort of incisveness.

20 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +11.06

This weekend is the start of the busy Christmas period, and every Premier League manager will be aching to get a win to start off the festive season with a bang.

Blackburn's game will be eagerly observed to see if Sam Allardyce manages to turn their fortunes around. However, Stoke are resolute, but most likely will not have Delap's long throws, which is a big blow. Definitely a match to miss.

Bolton take on Portsmouth at home, but last week's loss to Aston Villa was very poor defensively, and I'm afraid defensive frailty is something not easily cured. Portsmouth played midweek but rested a couple of players in their midweek win, but lost 3-0 against Newcastle last weekend in what was described as "football" poverty. Its hard to say if Bolton's recent troubles are a blip or something more serious, so another match to sit out.

Aston Villa travel to East London to play West Ham, who had a somewhat deserved draw against Chelsea. They are becoming very solidly defensively in the back, and now lack that cutting edge up front. However, against Chelsea they showed glimpses of their counter potency, which should do damage against a dodgy Aston Villa back line. Aston Villa themselves are a good attacking side, with their top players refreshed after the midweek UEFA cup flogging their defense suffered. I am seriously tempted to take the over 2.5 goals offered, but West Ham's defensive solidarity might frustrate Aston Villa like it did against Chelsea.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough was a match that I was initially interested on. I've been betting on Fulham the past two weekends luckily with DNBs. They do look like a determined side that has gelled, but maybe too much as they are defensively solid, but toothless in attack. Middlesbrough were quite impressive last week against Arsenal, but more is required to make this any sort of bet.

Which leaves me with two matches where I will be betting on:

Match: Hull vs Sunderland
Pick: Sunderland (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.75 (BlueSQ)
Stake: 5 units

I feel very confident about this pick. Hull are playing very well at the moment, taking the 2-0 lead at Liverpool before conceding two goals and drawing the match. However, the two goals were probably more to do with Liverpool's defensive errors than Hull's skill. They come into this match without McShane and Gardner, two crucial defenders. They also do not have Craig Fagan. Their manager has labelled this as a "tough game", and he is absolutely right. Sunderland on the other hand look like they've turned the corner, with a very spirited performance against Man Utd despite losing, and their 4-0 thrashing of WBA. They've always had good attacking skill, and were just unlucky in a couple of matches that led to Roy Keane's resignation. Now that skill is showing finally, and they will have no further injuries since last weekend. With newfound confidence, the squad will sense the urgency to get a couple more points to safety. Hull are way too short, even if they are playing at home.

Match: West Ham vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.77 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

The Hammers had a pretty good display against Chelsea last week, but they were playing a side that had self doubts about doing well at home, plus they only did well the 1st half when Chelsea were lost playing a crappy formation without Drogba. 2nd half was different as Chelsea gained some urgency and played with pressure.

Aston Villa are full of confidence, with well rested top players, and now that they occupy 4th spot will have extra determination to consolidate that achievement. They were absolutely dominant against Bolton. Usually the fear here is that West Ham will park the bus in front of goal, but I think due to their optimistic draw at Chelsea last week, Zola won't be able to resist playing a more open tactic, which will only be to Villa's advantage. Cole and Bellamy are just not finding the net at the moment, while Agbonlahor is on a hot streak. Good odds for a side that many now consider to be better than Arsenal this season, against a side that, lets not forget, lost many of its top players over the summer.

18 December 2008 - UEFA Cup

WON +3.54

Match: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Spartak Moscow
Pick: Spartak Moscow +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.18 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Yesterday’s pick was horrible with hindsight. Aston Villa were dreadful as predicted, but surprisingly Hamburg were amazing, especially their strikers. The match just showed how shallow the Villa squad is, and Hamburg well deserved their 3-0 win. However, it was only 1 goal away from being a winning bet, so I won’t think about it too much.

Tonight I am also going for a small stakes bet, as the UEFA cup is not my speciality. Spurs have more or less secured qualification in the UEFA cup as long as they don’t lose by more than 2 goals. Spartak Moscow, however, need at least a draw and ideally a win to qualify. Their Russian domestic season has ended, so this is one last match they are playing before having a long winter break. They have been in London since last week acclimatising, and played a friendly game against Chelsea Reserves on Saturday. No doubt because of Abramovich’s connections, the coach will probably have been assisted by the Chelsea backroom staff in gathering info about Spurs.

Spurs will be playing a weakened squad, and are already suffering from many injuries as well as players being cup-tied, so it will be like the Aston Villa case last night. Spartak might not be the best team out there, but I believe they will give Tottenham a hard time and odds for Spurs are too low even if playing at home.

LOST -3

Match: Hamburg vs Aston Villa
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.79 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Small stakes as I do not know Hamburg too well since I concentrate on the EPL. However, they seem to have struggled in their domestic league recently. Although winning in the last 2 games, they had to labour over Frankfurt to get their one goal lead. On top of that, about a week ago the manager remarked that his team was a bit tired and jaded, and probably looking forward to the long Christmas break they will be getting after this game.

Aston Villa on the other hand were amazing on the weekend, beating Bolton 4-1. However, less than 5 of the team that went out for that match will start this one, with Young, Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, and Laursen all left at home. These are Aston Villa's best players, and one could argue without the first 4 (and Carew, who is out injured), Aston Villa will look disjointed in attack and toothless. Indeed, Hamburg are no pushovers themselves, and will probably field their strongest team possible since they are getting a long break anyways. They are only 2 points behind the leaders in the Bundesliga, and clearly have a strong team.

So we have a team that has no credible attack, playing a tired and jaded team that is one win away from topping the Bundesliga domestically. On top of that both teams have qualified, with only top spot to play for. Quite a good chance that it will be unders.

14 December 2008 - Review

I think that is the worst bet that I ever picked. It was all looking good before kickoff, with the odds drifting tighter from 2.49 to 2.25, but I think Scolari showed today that he is actually a stubborn manager that cannot change when change is needed.

Drogba was fit to start from the beginning, but he stuck to playing Anelka as a lone striker, which just clearly doesn't work. It showed as Chelsea became alot better and potent in the second half after the introduction of Drogba. Worse still was the substitution of Joe Cole for Kalou, instead of taking the very poor Deco off. Deco looked like a robot, swinging in crosses that were right to the keeper and too high.

I can't blame the players or the teams for this bet, except for myself. I vowed a couple of posts ago never to blinded by my Chelsea bias, but I was again this time. West Ham got a fair goal, but to be honest spent most of the match defending.

Still simmering inside, but hopefully this mistake has taught me a valuable lesson.

14 December 2008 - Premier League

LOST -5

Match: Chelsea vs West Ham
Pick: Chelsea -2 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.42 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

There has been alot said of Chelsea's home advantage suddenly becoming a disadvantage this season. This should not be further from the truth as it makes no sense. The lack of home form has coincided with major injury to key players in recent weeks, for example Drogba and Joe Cole.

An interesting game was the midweek one against Cluj, where Chelsea seemed to struggle until the introduction of Drogba. Anelka really is a spoiled player and although he is a good striker, he needs the ball to placed perfectly at his feet and for defences to give him space. Drogba, on the other hand, worked to create space and chances, and got a wonderful goal. Joe Cole added some spark to the side with his incisive runs and passing. It is good that Drogba is now eligible once again, as Scolari can now consign the hopeless Kalou to the bench.

The normal handicap line for this match is around -1.75, but I reason why not take bigger odds at -2 as if Chelsea manage to get two goals past West Ham, they can surely get more.

13 December 2008 - Premier League

PUSH +0

There are several possibilities today, but all but one of the bets depends on the lineup and those will only be known in more detail closer towards the matches. I will of course post them here as soon as I make my bets, but it might not be appearing on Betshoot.com as it could be too late for their 1-hour policy.

At the moment there is only 1 confirmed bet.

Match: Stoke vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.18 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Fulham have been playing very well recently, you can see the team gelling with their defense solid and sound and their offense gaining some potency. They have had a couple of draws lately but they are increasing in confidence and I believe they will go on to make a good run of results in the next few games. No injuries, same XI as played in the last couple of games, and better teamwork.

Stoke have been doing well too this season, being one of the surprise packages. They have great spirit, having come from 2-0 down at HT in Newcastle to draw 2-2. However, they have struggled against Derby and Hull recently, showing that quality wise they are still upper-Championship. Griffin, their captain, is not available for this match, and Shawcross and Kitson are doubtful. Their manager has even conceded that this will be a "tough game", and I believe so too. Fulham have been poor on the road so far, but as you know I don't believe in these statistics as they could easily just be down to luck.

Fulham are better than Stoke, and getting odds on them above evens is a bargain for the AH+0/Draw No Bet.

Champions League Knockout Stage Draw

As the final round of the Champions League group stage has finished, we now eagerly look forward to the draw for the knockout round taking place on Friday.Rules state that winners of a group go in one pot, and runners up in another, where they will be drawn so that a group winner will play a group runner up. In addition, teams from the same country won't be drawn against each other, and the winner of group X won't be drawn with the runner up that was in the same group.This throws up a whole range of possibilities for Chelsea, as well as some odds. Chelsea can only draw Panathinaikos, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Porto, and Juventus, as they are ineligible to draw against Man United, Liverpool, and Roma. However, each of the teams in the group winner pot also have their own restrictions on who they can draw from the runners up pot that Chelsea is in.With a bit of excel magic, here are the odds of Chelsea being drawn against the following teams:

Barcelona - 28.77%
Porto - 19.18%
Juventus - 19.18%
Panathinaikos - 16.44%
Bayern Munich - 16.44%

Looks like Scolari had better be having sleepless nights, as a Barca draw is most likely!!

10 December 2008 Review

I watched the entire Porto vs Arsenal match, and my analysis was correct except for the part about Arsenal. In truth Arsenal couldn't string together even 3 passes, and even when they had the ball they lacked that creative spark to create chances. Porto on the other hand played amazingly well, what with the long balls, counter, and one touch passing. Hulk was exactly what his name implied. And in all honesty they thoroughly deserved their win, and actually deserved to win by more if they had not been so slack with their goalscoring opportunities.

Out of all the chances missed by Porto, they should have at least been able to convert one more to win my bet. Still, losing by 1 goal is not too bad. However, its a question once again of me picking losing O/U goal bets. If I had forced myself not to consider O/U's, I would have picked Porto to win, although they seemed quite short seeing how a draw would not be a bad result for both teams either. Still, someone remind me next time NOT to bet any over/unders!!

10 December 2008

LOST -3

Chelsea performed decently tonight, wrapping up qualification with a big scare halfway through when Cluj equalized. Anelka looks like a ghost, and Kalou looked like he had amnesia. The only redeemers were Joe Cole who had that sharpness about him and penetration down the flanks, and Drogba whose presence is always felt when he's on the pitch. Until both of them start playing full games, Chelsea are probably best avoided from a betting point of view.


Match: Porto vs Arsenal
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.27 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Let see. Both teams have already qualified. *0-0 alarm bells ring*. Odds for unders are pounded by punters. But if you look at the teams, I believe it will be a very open and free flowing game. Porto have scored 3,2,2 goals in their last 3 games. They have an attacking team, and will be looking to go for the win. Their playmaker, Meireles, was rested over the weekend specifically for this game. Why rest a playmaker when playing a decent midtable team (Setubal) when you're chasing in the local league? Only reason is that the manager views this match seriously.

Arsenal will be playing their youth team, which, although they lost to Burnley in the Carling Cup, are pretty decent. I believe they lost that time because they played against a team that excelled in pressing and containing. Porto will play no such tactic... they're a top team and are used to attacking, just like Arsenal. Hence I see lots of chances at either end, and lots of risk taking even when going one goal up as there's nothing to lose. Both teams have qualified. Hence I can't see why this odds for over is so high, and I must take a small bet on it. Of course, Champions League is not my speciality, so keeping it to small stakes.

9 December 2008 - Champions League

LOST -2

Match: Chelsea vs Cluj
Pick: Ballack to score first goal
Odds: 8 (Skybet)
Stake: 2 units

Chelsea go into this must-win game, and to me their home form seems very baffling. They are missing many first team players, such as Lampard and Malouda. I believe Cluj will approach the game just as they did in Romania; sit back and defend deep with lots of body in the box and frustrate Chelsea. They know it works, and they would be foolish not to try it.

Chelsea will be frustrated, especially if Anelka is up front wandering around like a lost sheep in a crowded box. However, Chelsea will be desperate to score goals, and the only way would be from outside the box or through corners.

Ballack hasn't been sensational lately, quietly toiling match in match out. However, he will probably be taking all the free kicks and penalties in the absence of Lampard, as well as being a big threat in corners and crosses. The odds on him (8+) to score the first goal is ridiculous... the goal is likely to come from outside the box or from a dead ball, and who better than Ballack?

Small stakes for this bet, as its just for fun while watching the game but the returns are great.

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7 & 8 December Review

Apologies if the posts from now on look different! I am trying out a new blogging program called Qumana that seems to be really useful for the Mac.

I've been spot on with both Aston Villa and Tottenham in my analysis over the last two days, and I have a good feeling that this might be the beginning of a good streak. I caught the second half of the Spurs game just now, and they were totally dominant up to the 1st goal, tearing into the West Ham side down the flanks. The Hammers didn't have any scoring chances at all, until after the first goal was scored when for some reason they missed from a few few feet. Poor Zola, that should have been a goal, and if it had the match would probably have ended 1-1. But O'Hara then scored a beautiful goal for Tottenham, and the match was over. What impressed me the most about Spurs was that after the second goal, they kept their composure and wound down the clock. Their teamwork and level-headedness was impressive... I think they strung like 15 passes together at a time, all in confined spaces, to deny the Hammers any chance of getting the ball. Impressive. They do look like a solid side now, and anyone who says they just had a lucky few games with a new manager is talking bull. West Ham, on the other hand, look to be that initially lucky side.

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8 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +5

Match: West Ham vs Tottenham
Pick: Tottenham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: Evens (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Apologies for this late post, I meant to publish it earlier but have only just arrived home from work. I will make it short, but succinct.

West Ham have done well over the last few games, keeping clean sheets, most notably against Liverpool last weekend. However, what the scoreline failed to show was that West Ham didn't really have any chances on goal, whereas Liverpool bombarded the West Ham goal from the start and it is astonishing that none of their attempts went in. I think they have been lucky so far, and their lack of goal-scoring chances have been worrying.

Tottenham are going through their own stumbling block of their own, losing 1-0 to Everton last week. However, I believe they have far better players than West Ham, and definitely will be able to score a goal or two. They played an average game midweek, but Redknapp had rested some players who will be making a return to this game.

As the odds are even, I can't help but side with Tottenham here. Sure, they are playing away, but away means a short limo ride across town.

7 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +5

Fulham played well today, and the DNB bet was a push due to the draw, so no profit or loss there. They seem to be a solid side on the up, so I will be looking to profit from that in future weeks if the opportunity arises.

The Bolton bet on the other hand just looks daft now. One good analysis during Match of the Day was that Bolton came out playing football, and thus allowed Chelsea the freedom to create chances. Plus, I forgot to think about the fact that Chelsea start games very determined and play good first halves, its just the second half where they tend to run out of motivation and ideas. Solid win for Chelsea, and a good lesson for me.

Match: Everton vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa win (draw no bet)
Odds: 2 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

I would be very surprised if Everton gets a goal in this match. No fit good strikers, and in their previous games with the lack of firepower up front they didn't have the midfielders to step in and take over the scoring roles. They had a somewhat random lucky goal against Tottenham, in a match that could have gone either way if it was reiterated many times. They created very few chances, and against an Aston Villa side that has near-top-4 quality, their chances will be limited again.

Aston Vila have been going through a rough patch in their last few games, with two 0-0 EPL draws before the 2-1 loss midweek to Zilina. However, it was mainly a 2nd string team that played on Thursday, and so many of the first teams players are well rested and fit. And that is the key thing, because Aston Villa did very well early season through their good fitness, stamina, and physical game that they lost when they had many fixtures in a short period.

They will have trouble breaking down an Everton side if the Toffees come out parking the bus in front of the goal, hence the DNB bet rather than an outright. Aston Villa are the better side here and the most likely to score, so I have to take them at Evens.

6 December 2008 - Premier League

LOST -5

There are two ways of looking at the Aston Villa overs pick. One is that it was horrible as the bet was shot to pieces within the first half when the score was 2-1. The other way to look at it is the match ended 2-1, only 1 goal off winning the bet, and that the first goal was just extremely lucky. From my analysis, you could have deduced that I was pro-Zilina, and my initial thoughts was to back them on Asian Handicap, which would have paid off handsomely, but I decided to be greedy and took the better odds on the unders. I have made this mistake time and time again, and from now on I am sticking to picking the winning sides rather than over/under as those are really more luck than anything else.

Match: Fulham vs Manchester City
Pick: Fulham (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.875 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Fulham have been doing well of late, getting draws against Aston Villa and Liverpool, showing that they are able to handle attacking sides. Their defence looks assured, and the team is starting to look like it is gelling together well. Man City will pose less of an attacking threat than the two previous teams to leave with only 1 point. Their goalless draw midweek showed how much they relied on a few creative talent for goals. Elano is out injured for this match, and Robinho, SWP, and Richards are all doubts, pointing towards a Man City team that will be short on ideas. They also played midweek whilst Fulham had a nice long rest, which will play into Fulham's pressing and containment tactics.


Match: Bolton vs Chelsea
Pick: Bolton +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.245 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

I opposed Chelsea last week in their derby with Arsenal, and my analysis was quite spot on, although it took a lucky break for Arsenal for them to come back and beat Chelsea. However, Chelsea do look very short on ideas. They will be missing J. Cole, Drogba, Di Santo, Carvalho, and Belletti, so Scolari will be short on options if the game isn't going his way. Anelka is a bit hit and miss, and as a sulky striker will expect all the balls to be presented to him on a silver platter. However, without creativity, how are Chelsea meant to do that? Bolton on the other hand are playing with full confidence, have a full squad, and are playing at home. The odds for Chelsea are way too short just because they have won 10 away games in a row.

4 December 2008 - UEFA Cup

LOST -4

Match: Aston Villa vs MSK Zilina
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.05 (Bet365)
Stake: 4 units

Aston Villa are viewing this match as an opportunity to rest some of their first team players since they already have 6 points from their first two games. Both the potent strikers, Carew and Agbonlahor, are not even on the bench and there might be other changes to the squad.

MSK Zilina have only 1 point so far, and judging by the comments from their manager they're not expecting to progress from the group. They are not a bad side, doing well in their domestic league, and Villa Park isn't exactly the most intimidating of venues to play at. I see them parking the bus trying to nick a goalless draw, and frankly Aston Villa will probably just sit in 1st gear if they go 1-0 up.

Good odds for a match that looks under.

2 December 2008 - Carling Cup

WON +0.36

Two matches tonight, both involving Premiership teams! The youngsters of Arsenal are taking on Burnley, in what many neutral fans hope will end with a fairytale ending with Arsenal winning by a huge margin. There’s nothing that gets the public more excited than a bunch of 17 year olds beating a professional football side. However, Burnley have been doing very well in the Championship this season, and their last performance against Chelsea in the previous round would have given them lots of confidence. I watched that game live, and the Burnley players were not at all intimidated and asserted themselves on the field. If they don’t fear the starting line-up of a world class side like Chelsea, they definitely won’t at home to a bunch of youngsters. On the other hand, Wenger’s kids will probably be slightly intimidated by the visit to the small town of Burnley. Odds for Arsenal are way too short, and I think Burnley will be able to get something out of this tie or it will end in a draw.

Match: Burnley vs Arsenal
Pick: Burnley +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.12 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units


The other match is Stoke against Derby, another Premier League –Championship matchup. Stoke should be gunning to reach the semis of the Carling Cup where they will then have a real chance of winning some silverware this season. They will be playing their first team with maybe one or two changes, and I really believe they have way too much quality for a Derby side who were just embarrassing in the Premier League last season and performing poorly in the Championship this year. They just can’t seem to stem the goals, especially with injured central defenders and two first team loan players cup-tied. Stoke are playing at home too, and have a decent defence against average Premiership sides, so I don’t see a problem here for them at all. In addition, Derby have very short defenders (1.8-1.9m), and they will have lots of difficulty dealing with Rory Delap's long throws.

Match: Stoke vs Derby
Pick: Stoke win
Odds: around 1.75 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

1st December 2008

LOST -3

Match: Liverpool vs West Ham
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: Around 2, TBC
Stake: 3 units

New month, and hopefully a profitable few weeks before Christmas!

Liverpool take on West Ham in a match where I highly rate Liverpool to get something out of the match. West Ham are amazingly poor, getting a lucky win against Sunderland where they only had 2 shots on target, one of which hit the post. There was nothing special about their play, and their win can be put down to just pure luck. The problems with the team are systemic, and with the inexperienced Zola on the helm I highly doubt they will get any better anytime soon.

Liverpool on the other hand look like they are struggling, with a 1-0 win against Marseille and a 0-0 draw with Fulham. However, in the Marseille game they were truly the better side, and could have gone 2-0,3-0 up, except they slacked off and just allowed Marseille to pressure them all 2nd half. Against Fulham, they were frustrated by a visiting side that expended lots of energy pressing and suffocating, which turned out to be very effective in the end.

Against West Ham, Liverpool are well rested from their Champions League exertions on Wednesday, plus have a full squad sans Torres. They will be playing a West Ham that will not be parking a team bus in front of goal, and Liverpool do play at their best against teams that play open football as well. Frankly, I can't really see West Ham scoring as their attacking record is so poor, and their clean sheet in the last game was due more to the poor Sunderland side that only put up high balls that were dealt with easily. Liverpool will play more of a passing game and crossing from the flanks, which should give the Hammers defence lots of problems.

I'm wary that Liverpool might go 1-0 up and just switch off, but I think Benitez would have berated his players for doing that against Marseille and they would not do it again.

30 November 2008

WON +0.4

A surprising result as all 3 picks won on Saturday! To be fair two of them (Fulham and Wigan) were somewhat lucky to win, with only the Bolton one well deserved. However, luck is all part of the betting game, and I take the bad with the good with the faith that over time I will make better educated bets.

This Sunday I'm off to Stamford Bridge to catch the match between Chelsea and Arsenal, in what will be a thrilling game. As a Chelsea fan it pains me to place bets against my own team, but the odds available were just too tempting.


Match: Tottenham vs Everton
Pick: Tottenham to win
Odds: 2 (William Hill)
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have good players. We have seen what confidence has done to transform the side. And frankly, their last two games against NEC and Blackburn were assured performances in which they could have won by a greater scoreline than 1-0 and never looked likely to have lost. They had several players rested midweek (Pavyluchenko, Corluka, King, and Jenas) which should be a boost when they return for this match. Everton on the other hand have an attacking crisis, with Vaughan, Aniche, Pienaar, and Saha all injured and unavailable for this match. They were unlucky to lose to Wigan, but this was due to their lack of attacking edge even though they had the majority of possession, which is made worse by their injuries for this match. Take Tottenham here who are at nice odds to win at home.


Match: Chelsea vs Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.08 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

What bollocks! The odds for a Chelsea win are even lower than a Man Utd win over Man City, whom we know are definitely not top 4 class yet. In addition, Chelsea seem to have hit a stumbling block recently. Even though their recent results haven't been a disaster, they look like reverting back to the boring Mourinho-era side, not the sexy creative Scolari side we saw earlier this season. Increasingly, they look unable to create quality chances in the final third. They are starting to be like Arsenal; without Drogba, they have no plan B if their plan A doesn't work. Arsenal have been going through their own rough patch recently, but with Fabregas as the new captain and a decent performance midweek, they will rise to the challenge against Chelsea as they know they cannot afford to lose any more points in the title chase. They will be boosted by the return of Adebayor, Nasri, and Sagna, which should give them a good attacking edge. Chelsea should be closer to like 2.3 or 2.3 for the win, and not 1.85, and for that reason the Asian Handicap for Arsenal look a good bet.

29 Novenber 2008 - EPL

WON +7.52

Right, back to the regular matches, and time to put behind the midweek debacle and get back to winning ways. Saturday sees 5 matches played, with not many bets that stand out. I believe the bookies are getting better and better at setting the lines and odds, and with none of the teams showing any great form any pick feels like a lottery.

With that in mind, I am only going to have 3 small bets for Saturday to keep the interest going.

Match: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.09 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 2 units

Villa look too short against a strong and stable Fulham side. They impressed with a win over Arsenal and a draw against Man Utd, but they do seem to struggle against teams that are physical and play a pressing game. Fulham are just that team, having beaten Tottenham and drawn with Liverpool, both teams that play very similar to Aston Villa. Both managers have a full squad to choose from and the benefit of a midweek rest, so I expect a lot of midfield battles and start/stop play as Fulham frustrate Aston Villa. Martin O’Neill has stated that this will be a difficult game, and frankly I’m surprised the odds for Villa are at 1.66. Take the Fulham handicap here!


Match: Wigan vs West Brom
Pick: Wigan
Odds: 1.83 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units

In the other match, Wigan have way too much class against West Brom, although they haven’t been able to realize it so far this season. They are without Zaki, which is a blow, but they welcome back Boyce and Melchiot to strengthen their defence. West Brom, on the other hand, pretend like they are Arsenal and try to play passing football, but without the skill or the talent they fall well flat. Wigan’s defence should hold up strongly, and the only doubt is that Wigan’s attack is hit or miss at times.


Match: Sunderland vs Bolton
Pick: Bolton +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

I wasn't intending to pick this last one, but upon further analysis it does like Bolton are finding some kind of form and are better than their odds suggest. Sunderland are poor, and I believe its a problem on the managerial level with no quick fix solution. It will be a tight match for sure, but somehow I see Bolton grinding out a small win or a draw here.

27 November 2008 Review

Oh my God. What a game.

Milan had a whole host of chances in the 1st half, and really should have led. However, their slackness and non-urgency punished them badly. Portsmouth went 2-0 up, and Milan looked like a side that had given up. Inzaghi hit the post THREE times, and it just seemed like it was not going to be their night.

Then Ronaldinho comes out of nowhere and scores a trademark free kick from some distance out, and suddenly Milan are back in the game. One horrible defensive error from Portsmouth allowed Inzaghi to collect a pass in the middle of the penalty box, and with a class striker like him the goal was a done deal.

I am just so frustrated because I came so close to winning, and probably should have, in my opinion. Milan should have wrapped up the first half leading 1-0, instead Portsmouth gained confidence and Milan had doubts if anything would go their way this night. Horrible 3 bet losing streak at the moment, and hopefully this weekend will produce some bets to snap it.

27 November 2008 - UEFA Cup

LOST -5

Last night's two picks were nothing less than embarassing. Chelsea went draw/draw, and didn't even look like remotely scoring in the 1st half. Liverpool started out brightly and grabbed a goal, but were content to sit back and let Marseille pressure. The French side were very wasteful, and if they had equalized no doubt a third goal would have come easily when Liverpool push back. Sadly it ended 1-0.

I've got to learn to be patient and do more no bets. The analogy here would be playing tight in poker and folding most hands pre-flop.

Tonight, however, I've spotted one good value bet.

Match: Portsmouth vs AC Milan
Pick: AC Milan
Odds: 2.25 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Milan are definitely a class above Portsmouth, and although they will be resting some 1st team players like Ronaldinho, they have alot of class especially in midfield. They like to play a passing game, and comments about the pitch being suited for that is reassuring, as players saying that they have now almost reached top gear as a team. Their recent form is a bit worrying, but they are against a Portsmouth side that will be missing Defoe, Diarra, and most likely Kranjcar and Campbell. Tony Adams has talked down the hype of this game, and the opinion is that he is concentrating on getting league results rather than pushing an uphill battle to try to get to the next round of the UEFA Cup. In fact, their squad is rather thin, and Adams would be hard pressed to make any meaningful substitutions during the game if the need arises. Milan, on the other hand, will be able to introduce their big guns from the bench if things don't go their way.

Victory will ensure Milan qualify, and they should definitely have the class here to do that. Plus the odds are rather nice because in European competitions, the odds of English clubs are always too short.

26 November 2008 - Champions League 2

LOST -8

Yesterday's pick was extra satisfying, as not only did it win comfortably (only 1 goal, and a late goal at that!) but because my analysis was somewhat spot on. Arsenal did struggle a bit and Dinamo Kiev just didn't look threatening either, although both sides did have many good chances.

Tonight Chelsea and Liverpool are involved in Champions League action, but the picking is hard, even harder than yesterday's.

Chelsea looks like they are a class above Bordeaux, and normally should have no problems winning easily. However, they are thin on the bench and their weakness is if they get nothing out of their gameplan A, then they have no plan B. Therefore if Bordeaux manage to frustrate The Blues until half time, chances are Chelsea will lose the will to win. The game at Cluj comes to mind as a fine example. Therefore if Chelsea are not leading at HT, they're unlikely to win FT, but if they are leading at HT they have enough resolve to hold on to that lead till FT. Therefore, the outstanding bet here is Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT) at 2.87, as its virtually the same bet as an outright Chelsea win at 1.8.

Match: Bordeaux vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 2.875 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

Liverpool take on Marseille, and they will be looking to channel their frustration of drawing last weekend into securing passage into the next round of the CL. Torres and Gerrard will be reunited from the start, with plentiful of striking options in Kuyt and Keane. Furthermore, they will be well rested and full of energy as they're had 4 days since Saturday. Marseille, on the other hand, are a very poor side, with a porous defence. However, they do boast one of the most prolific strike force in Ligue 1, and need to get a result of their own from this match. They are not one to sit back and park the team bus in front of the goal. I am surprised that the line has been more or less set at 2.5, so here I will take the opportunity to go for over 2.5 @ evens instead of the stingy 1.44 on offer for a Liverpool win.

Match: Liverpool vs Marseille
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

25 November 2008 - Champions League

WON +3.3

Match: Arsenal vs Dinamo Kiev
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.1 (SkyBet)
Stake: 3 units

There are two schools of thought for this game. One is Arsenal will bounce back and do a 6-0 and show their class. The other is that they'll disintegrate once again and lose embarassingly. I subscribe to neither opinion, as the first is flawed seeing how they have so many first team players missing, and the second is equally fantasy as Dinamo just don't have the quality. What I see if a Dinamo side well rested (no game over the weekend), and will probably press and frustrate Arsenal. The Gunners have a lack of first team quality with all their injured players, and will struggle to create chances as usual. A Gallas led backline should be able to deal with Dinamo's 2nd rate attack, especially if they play with a lone striker up front. Odds are just too good in this situation to pass up!

Wigan vs Everton Review

It was so frustrating as Everton could have definitely pulled back one goal. Still, betting is about a numbers game and the match really did seem destined for a 0-0 or a 1-1. My analysis was somewhat spot on - both teams struggled to break each other down, but Wigan played the better football especially in the 2nd half. I've got to start listening to the silent alarm bells... I mentioned in my post that I thought it strange that wigan was given the same odds as Everton even though they were playing at home. I questioned the Everton away trend and the Wigan home trend, and true enough those who had bet blindly thinking that Everton played amazing away and Wigan played crap at home would have been badly burnt. Past trends count for didly squat unless its backed up by solid logic.

24 November 2008

LOST -3

I'm glad to see that my analysis is bearing fruit, with 3 out of the 4 picks on Saturday spot on. The Chelsea one was not that far off, as no goals were scored at all, and even post-match it can be seen that there was probably a better chance of a goal scored in the 1st half than 2nd half, and at odds of 3+ it was a decent bet even if it did not win this particular time. However, it made me think that perhaps I'm a bit too generous betting with Chelsea as a supporter, so in future I will think twice before placing any Chelsea bets.


Match: Wigan vs Everton
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.33 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

This is a very tough game to call, and although I initially favoured Everton, taking them at the same odds of Wigan (who have home advantage) is a bit risky. Alot has been said in the media that "oh Wigan plays crap at home this season and Everton play good on the road therefore Everton must win" is poor analysis, as it really probably is just an abnormality and over time the home team has the overall advantage.

Having said that however, Wigan might be having Hesky, Zaki, Melchiot, and Koumas missing, and Boyce suspended, all very important players in the side and I can see them having trouble scoring goals tonight. Everton, however, have Fellani and Pienaar doubtful.

Wigan have trouble against attacking sides (e.g. Newcastle and Arsenal), but Everton isn't one, they play more organized and industrious football. Everton have been good this season, beating West Ham and drawing with Man Utd, but these are attacking sides, which Wigan is not. Against industrious sides like Fulham and Bolton, they only managed to win by a goal, some could say quite luckily too. Against Middlesbrough they drew the match 1-1.

Therefore I expect both sides to struggle against each other, and can see the match ending 0-0 or 1-1. Everton will have a hard time breaking down a sturdy Wigan side, especially if they have to put on a more defensive tactic if Hesky and Zaki won't be playing.

Small stakes, just for fun to keep the excitement while watching the match tonight on Setanta 1! Kickoff at 8pm.

22 November 2008

WON +10.37

After a rocky start, my picking has started to bear some fruit and even though I am still in negative territory I have complete faith that over time it will return to positive territory.

This weekend is especially hard to pick, what with the midweek friendlies playing havoc with all the teams involved. Of special concern is the trio at Man Utd that had to fly back from Brazil after a blistering match. With that in mind, two of this week's picks are underdog teams that should have more energy and preparation.

Match: Chelsea vs Newcastle
Pick: More goals in the 1st half
Odds: 3.1 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 8 units

The side only has one fit striker, Anelka, and he'll be his freshest in the 2nd half. Joe Cole will probably start, but he probably won't be able to last the whole match. With Kalou very likely to replace Anelka someway through the 2nd half if Chelsea is leading, I think most of the goals will be before the 50-60th minute, and odds of 3 for more goals in the first half seem generous. Especially since the new Chelsea give it their all right from the beginning. Newcastle have Owen back, but his match fitness is probably not 100% and he will be substituted at some point too. In which case Newcastle are hard pressed for other striking options.


Match: Manchester City vs Arsenal
Pick: Man City (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.5 (Skybet)
Stake: 5 units

Turmoil at Arsenal, Gallas being dropped for the match, and no Fabregas, Walcott, and perhaps Adebayor. Who's going to lead this side out and direct them on the field? I can't see them playing as a coherent unit against an attack minded Man City side. Plus with Gallas injured, Arsenal's fragile defence is like a house of cards. To be honest Man City had their own internal strife and Mark Hughes looks to be losing control of the team. But they have a strong squad at the moment and their performance against Hull was encouraging. This is a match where I'm choosing between two sides in trouble, but as these odds are likely to shorten tomorrow as more bad news about Arsenal leak out, its good to take some value.


Match: Portsmouth vs Hull
Pick: Hull +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.044 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Defoe and Diarra are rated 50/50 for the match, and Sol Campbell and Kranjcar are out already for Portsmouth. Their goalless draw with West Ham last weekend was frustrating, but without Defoe they will be missing a crucial striking option, and without Diarra as their rock in the midfield they risk being overrun by Hull, who are a pretty decent side. Hull Have shown they are no pushovers in the league, and their fighting spirit is very commendable. They have a full squad to choose from, although a worry is their 10 internationals maybe feeling some fatigue.


Match: Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Pick: Aston Villa +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Aston Villa are a quality side, and with the midweek rest for most of the squad, they'll be full of energy to play their pressing and high tempo game. Man Utd are in fine form of their own as well, but with many of their players coming back from internationals (especially the trio from Brazil) they might struggle to match Aston Villa in energy. Ferdinand is a doubt, and Berbatov is injured. Aston Villa will fancy their chances playing at home!

16 November 2008

PUSH +0

Match: Hull vs Manchester City
Pick: Man City (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.83 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 3 units

There wasn't much value in either of the two matches today, and I struggled to formulate any thoughts on the two matches. However, I decided that Man City has the better quality than Hull, and even with the turmoil in their squad they should perform better. Dunne is banned for this match, which might actually turn out to be a good thing because his performances of late haven't been that convincing. Hull have their own internal problems midweek, and with their strikers bickering they probably won't be in the right frame of mind today to score goals. This match could equally end 0-0 though, what with both teams distracted by off the pitch events.

I was surprised that Ladbrokes offered 1.83 for Man City Draw No Bet, even though they offered Man City -0 (AH) at only like 1.72, which is exactly the same bet!! What's more, 1.83 is alot higher than that offered by any other bookie and even Betfair, so its good to take a bit more value from the bookie.

A small bet of 3 units will satisfy the bet craving for today!

15 November 2008

WON +7.15

Apologies for the late posting... procrastinated last night and just remembered I haven't posted my selections up yet for today!

Match: Fulham vs Tottenham
Pick: Fulham (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.48 (Paddypower)
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have been high flying since Redknapp took over, but I suspect they will soon start to slack a bit and take wins for granted. Fulham on the other hand are a very solid team, especially at home, and I suspect they should be able to match Tottenham. These odds are juicy as everyone has been jumping on the Tottenham bandwagon and the bookies know that.

Match: Newcastle vs Wigan
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.82 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Why is this not lower? Wigan have trouble scoring, and Newcastle have a lack of striking options for this match too. Granted that both these teams are struggling and letting goals in, but mainly against sides that like to counter and go on the attack. Both these teams look like they might field more cautious formations and I wouldn't be surprised if the match ended 0-0.

Match: West Brom vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Oh Chelsea. What a disappointment midweek against an average Burnley side who just played a simple game of frustrating and pressing. Unfortunately for West Brom, Scolari is a good manager who will rouse his players for this game. West Brom just struggles against good counter teams as they like the attack themselves, leaving them open. Frankly, if I was the manager I would park the bus in front of goal as that seems to work against Chelsea, but they will be playing attacking flowing football which definitely suits Chelsea.

12 November 2008

WON +9.95

Match: Tottenham vs Liverpool (Carling Cup)
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.99 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

There's been alot of media hype about this game, as Tottenham beat Liverpool 2-1 in somewhat astonishing circumstances. Their recent "revival" has also been a big talking point. I do agree that Tottenham are playing very fluidly now with some confidence, but Liverpool should have won that match, and are clearly the much better side.

All this will be thrown out of the window when they meet tonight as both managers will be looking to make some changes to give some first team players a rest. However, with Torres playing and Redknapp stating that he's keen to field a strong lineup, I believe attackers will be the star in this match. Tottenham's defence is still dodgy, and Liverpool's no better with the wholesale changes being rung tonight.

11 November 2008 Review

Nothing seems to be going my way! I know I sound like a mug punter, but every event looks like going against me. Even in the horse racing, where I pick out underdogs at odds of 8+, and out of the last 7 races, five have come in second place, so excruciatingly close to first place. I'm beginning to think that I have a talent for picking runners up, rather than the winner.

Tonight's bet of Stoke not winning sounds very hollow now. After reading the match report on Soccernet, it seems like Stoke dominated the game, and deserved to win, even though they had sent out their 2nd string side and Rotherham are playing very well actually in league 2. I guess I overestimated the strength of league 2 sides.

Anyways, there's nothing to do at the moment except learn from mistakes, and make smaller bets waiting for this bad streak to end. Tomorrow's Carling Cup matches throw up some juicy fixtures. I will be at the Chelsea match against Burnley, but there doesn't seem to be any value in there. The Tottenham vs Liverpool match seems promising, with my leaning towards Tottenham, but I will have to examine the team sheets and the managerial press conferences a bit more to see what sort of teams will be taking the field. Sunderland vs Blackburn also look like it might throw up something interesting (under 2.5?) but again I will have to assess tomorrow afternoon once there is more news.

11 November 2008

LOST -5.60

A few big Carling Cup matches today involving Premiership teams, but the odds all seem to be spot on and there are question marks on the underdogs even though the Premiership teams will be treating the games as 2nd rate and giving their reserves/youths a run out.

I will personally be at the Arsenal game watching the youths in Red take on what will probably be a full strength Wigan squad. Normally this would be the perfect opportunity to back Wigan as they are a decent Premiership team, but without Heskey, a poor 0-0 draw against Stoke over the weekend, and difficulty playing against teams with pace, passing, and attacking talent they will face huge difficulties against Arsenal's eager and talented youngsters. Of course it could go the other way with Wigan exploiting the young Arsenal side, but its a game to watch rather than to bet at those odds! Arsenal could end up winning 4-0, or Wigan could frustrate the youngsters and exploit naive vulnerabilities later on to win. A match that could go either way.

Manchester United's youngsters take on QPR. QPR should normally be backable as they are a solid Championship side. But their recent form and their "lucky" late win against 9 men Cardiff over the weekend does not instill confidence. Plus they are operating under a caretaker manager as well as finding goals hard to come by recently. Another no bet game here for me.

And we arrive at Stoke vs Rotherham. Stoke had a poor game against Wigan over the weekend, drawing 0-0, and only mustering 1 attempt on goal. Their poor performance was a result of infighting amongst themselves on the pitch. Plus, they will be missing some first team players through injury and cup-tiedness, and it is likely that Pullis will be rotating 6-10 players in his squad just as in the last Carling Cup game. Stoke's priority at the moment seem to be scrapping out points in the Premiership for survival, and the Carling Cup will be low on the list of priorities. Rotherham on the other hand will be looking to live up to their name as "giant killers" and have no new injury concerns from over the weekend. Worryingly they are at 21st place in League 2, but at these odds its worth having a small punt on Rotherham. One worry here is that Delap might play, which will immediately be a major concern, but hopefully Pullis gives him a rest and protects the team's greatest asset for the EPL.


Match: Stoke vs Rotherham
Pick: Rotherham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.43 (Betfair)
Stake: 5.60 units

8th November 2008

WON +2.40

Match: West Ham vs Everton
Pick: Everton (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.08 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

West Ham are playing poor at the moment as the euphoria of a new coach has worn off. They have lost some of their good defensive players (i.e. Ferdinand), and with Carlton Cole injured, they do lack some firepower up front.

Everton are solid, but they have left it late in the last 2 games to win. However, they are defensively solid. As they look like they lack ambition and the ruthlessness, this game could easily be a draw but I reckon the more likely side to win is Everton.

Race: Wincanton 2:50
Pick: Katchit
Odds: 4 (skybet)
Stake: 3 units

Solid runner, and although there are some other good contenders in the field I believe this horse is consistent and has a very experience jockey riding it again. Blythe has question marks, but Takeroc and Chomba Womba will provide strong challenges, but the price is quite good.

6th November Review

Damn, looks like the losing streak is going to continue for a while. I haven't watched the matches or read the reviews, but Aston Villa won 1-0 and Tottenham had a convincing 4-0 win, without their top players!

It looks like Tottenham is finally gelling and playing well, and Aston Villa are still eking out wins.

6th November 2008

LOST -10

Finally! One winning bet. As suspected Arsenal were lacking in options up front, completely giving up in the 2nd half. It didn't help that Fenerbahce were timid and didn't try to take advantage of the situation by trying to grab a goal. Man Utd will prove a tougher proposition this weekend, so even though its still too early I will probably be taking Man Utd to win or a draw.

Anyways, on to today's UEFA cup picks!

Match: Slavia Praha - Aston Villa
Pick: Slavia Praha DNB
Odds: *tbc*
Stake: 5 units

Aston Villa are playing really badly now. Their early season form was due to their high work rate and energy, but they really do look like a spent force when they played Monday and I can't see that improving having had to travel and only 3 days between games. Slavia Prague on the other hand are doing well in their domestic league, so in my eyes they're favorites to get something from this game.

Match: Tottenham - Dinamo Zagreb
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb +1.25 Asian Handicap
Odds: *tbc*
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have been invincible the last few matches with their new manager, but for this match they are missing alot of first team players who are cup tied, and will be light up front. Its a dangerous bet as they will be gung-ho with confidence flowing through their veins, but I think Dinamo have chances as well to grab goals and if they defend decently should be able to do well. Line is so high only because of Tottenham's miracles over the last few games!

Sorry that I am unable to enter odds, but I placed the bets in a hurry this morning before leaving for work and now at work I can't check my bets because all the betting sites are blocked.

5th November 2008

WON +5.25

Match: Arsenal vs Fenerbahce
Pick: Fenerbahce +1.5 Asian Handicap
Odds: 2.05 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

This looks like a cracking bet to me, although with my current form punters might want to stay well clear of my picks. Arsenal are playing poorly, and will not have Walcott, Adebayor, or Gallas for this game. Considering the first two are instrumental in attack and the latter in defence, Arsenal look ripe for the picking.

Fenerbahce haven't had the best of form so far, having lost 5-2 to Arsenal at home and drawing 2-2 in their last domestic game. Both teams look like they have shaky defences, and initial thoughts was for over 2.5 goals, but that line has been set at about 1.55 which is way too low for me to consider.

4th November 2008

-5 Units

Match: Roma vs Chelsea
Pick: Draw - Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 5.67 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

I know this looks like exactly the same bet as on Saturday, but I really can't find any other better value bet except for maybe Chelsea to win @ 2.2, but those are too low as the chance of a draw is a strong possibility.

I expect Roma to get bodies behind the ball, frustrating Chelsea. Ashley Cole is out, and Bridge deputizing means less forays down the left flank. Roma managed to contain Chelsea well the first match, and I think they will adopt the same tactic again, so I see goals in the 2nd half more likely than the first, and only for Chelsea to score. Totti is not back to full fitness so Roma will lack that creative spark to create goals.

3rd November Review

What can I say, I seem to be in a slump at the moment. I didn't get to watch most of the match, but only caught the last 15 minutes at a pub on the way home from work. What I saw shocked me. Newcastle were very slick at passing, and pressed very well, which showed glimmer of their form when they were good. Aston Villa on the other hand just didn't seem to have the passion to try to get a goal back. They kept pumping long balls up, and playing at a very slow tempo. I would have thought they would try to keep the ball on the ground, but instead they went for lobs.

Newcastle showed great teamwork and composure when they went 2-0 up, cleverly keeping possession and just passing the ball around, which to me says loads about the discipline instilled by Kinnear.

I am ashamed to say that I picked over 2.5 (although I'm sure there were chances that could have made it like that), but 2-0 was a fair result to Newcastle, and it looks like the jadedness and fatigue of Aston Villa is here to stay for a while.

3rd November Bets

LOST -5

Match: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.8 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

Both Aston Villa and Newcastle have good attacking players, but unfortunately their defences are lacking. Newcastle seems to have undergone a revival recently, but I still believe that their early season form was a result of their poor quality of defense, and think Aston Villa should be able to grab at least 2 goals in this match. Although Aston Villa looked jaded recently, this was because of their hectic schedule, and they have since had 4 days rest since Thursday for this game. Owen is close to making a return and should feature in the 2nd half, and I will be surprised if Newcastle can't get at least a goal of their own.

1st November 2008 Review

Well well. Every one of my first three bets lost. And as a responsible gambler, I won't be laying blame on luck or other things. I take full responsibility and blame for every bet I place, because in the end its my own money I'm wagering.

However, I do like to review any losing bets to learn from them. The best way to gain wisdom and knowledge is to learn from your mistakes.

Anyways, the first bet... Draw/Chelsea. I knew Chelsea would have the quality to win, but didn't expect Sunderland's usually reliable defense to crumble so easily.

In the WBA - Blackburn match, I do think that perhaps if Blackburn were not reduced to 10 men they would have won the match 1-0 or 2-0. It is just unlucky that there was a red card in this match, its almost impossible to predict.

Liverpool vs Tottenham. Liverpool were just too massive odds to resist. There was always the chance that Tottenham, riding on their high, would perform miracles in this match too. It so could have gone Liverpool's way, who had led through an early strike and had lots of chances after that to seal the game beyond doubt. What happened was a Tottenham revival that took advantage of Liverpool's complacency. Just typical Liverpool to screw up a match. Anyways, I still think that Tottenham are weak in defense, and against a well organized team with a clear strategy they will struggle. Liverpool on the other hand will probably struggle for a week or two, and then come back strongly when they wake up and smell the coffee.

Anyways, today I had a look at the Man City match. It was too hard to tell who would win, as Man City are probably the most inconsistent team in the EPL at the moment. True enough they lost 2-0 again. But on a good day they can win 3,4-0. So I will be avoiding them in the short term until they show some consistency!

1st November 2008 Picks

LOST -16

Tournament: English Premier League
Date: 1st November 2008

Pick: Draw/Chelsea (Half Time/Full Time)
Odds: 5 (William Hill)
Stake: 4 units

Chelsea have Carvalho out, and possibly Joe Cole as well. They will be lacking creativity up front, and Sunderland are quite well organized defensively. I think Chelsea will be able to find a way through, but Sunderland will be frustrating them in the first half by getting men behind the ball and not allowing Chelsea to play free-flowing football. Therefore I expect a draw at HT, but Chelsea to win it eventually.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals in WBA vs Blackburn
Odds: 1.85 (Bet365)
Stake: 4 units

Both sides have trouble scoring goals, and Blackburn will be sorely missing Santa Cruz and Warnock. WBA had some major concentration lapses in the midweek game, but I expect their manager to have worked on it during the last few days and I believe they should be more than capable to contain Blackburn.

Pick: Liverpool to beat Tottenham
Odds: 2.14 (Betfair)
Stake: 8 units

We get to the most exciting match of all! I really can't understand the pricing by the bookies. I watched Spurs' midweek miraculous draw against Arsenal, but it was just that... miraculous. They are still the same frail defense, and it has been shown that any team with a coherent organized defense is able to contain their weak strikers. Liverpool should win this, especially with their wingers causing havoc down the flanks and crossing balls in left and right.

Introduction

For over 6 years I have followed the English Premier League, mostly as a Chelsea fan but also professing admiration for Arsenal's slick passing and Man Utd's renaissance more recently.

I started betting just over a year ago, and after a year of learning, frustrations, and joy, I have decided that I should take a more serious approach because I believe I can make money on my knowledge of the EPL over the long run.

On this blog I will be posting all my bets, at least half an hour before kick-off. Eventually I will be adding horse racing bets as well, when I am confident that my skill in that "sport" is sufficient to pick up value.

As always, I advise anyone else reading this blog not to follow my picks/tips blindly, but to use my calls and opinions as a way to supplement your own. Please do feel free to post comments on my posts, as I am still learning and would love to hear opinions on my picks.

Best of luck to everyone, and may we all we wallowing in cash in the near future!