24 November 2008

LOST -3

I'm glad to see that my analysis is bearing fruit, with 3 out of the 4 picks on Saturday spot on. The Chelsea one was not that far off, as no goals were scored at all, and even post-match it can be seen that there was probably a better chance of a goal scored in the 1st half than 2nd half, and at odds of 3+ it was a decent bet even if it did not win this particular time. However, it made me think that perhaps I'm a bit too generous betting with Chelsea as a supporter, so in future I will think twice before placing any Chelsea bets.


Match: Wigan vs Everton
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.33 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

This is a very tough game to call, and although I initially favoured Everton, taking them at the same odds of Wigan (who have home advantage) is a bit risky. Alot has been said in the media that "oh Wigan plays crap at home this season and Everton play good on the road therefore Everton must win" is poor analysis, as it really probably is just an abnormality and over time the home team has the overall advantage.

Having said that however, Wigan might be having Hesky, Zaki, Melchiot, and Koumas missing, and Boyce suspended, all very important players in the side and I can see them having trouble scoring goals tonight. Everton, however, have Fellani and Pienaar doubtful.

Wigan have trouble against attacking sides (e.g. Newcastle and Arsenal), but Everton isn't one, they play more organized and industrious football. Everton have been good this season, beating West Ham and drawing with Man Utd, but these are attacking sides, which Wigan is not. Against industrious sides like Fulham and Bolton, they only managed to win by a goal, some could say quite luckily too. Against Middlesbrough they drew the match 1-1.

Therefore I expect both sides to struggle against each other, and can see the match ending 0-0 or 1-1. Everton will have a hard time breaking down a sturdy Wigan side, especially if they have to put on a more defensive tactic if Hesky and Zaki won't be playing.

Small stakes, just for fun to keep the excitement while watching the match tonight on Setanta 1! Kickoff at 8pm.