LOST -3

Match: Hamburg vs Aston Villa
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.79 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Small stakes as I do not know Hamburg too well since I concentrate on the EPL. However, they seem to have struggled in their domestic league recently. Although winning in the last 2 games, they had to labour over Frankfurt to get their one goal lead. On top of that, about a week ago the manager remarked that his team was a bit tired and jaded, and probably looking forward to the long Christmas break they will be getting after this game.

Aston Villa on the other hand were amazing on the weekend, beating Bolton 4-1. However, less than 5 of the team that went out for that match will start this one, with Young, Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, and Laursen all left at home. These are Aston Villa's best players, and one could argue without the first 4 (and Carew, who is out injured), Aston Villa will look disjointed in attack and toothless. Indeed, Hamburg are no pushovers themselves, and will probably field their strongest team possible since they are getting a long break anyways. They are only 2 points behind the leaders in the Bundesliga, and clearly have a strong team.

So we have a team that has no credible attack, playing a tired and jaded team that is one win away from topping the Bundesliga domestically. On top of that both teams have qualified, with only top spot to play for. Quite a good chance that it will be unders.