26 November 2008 - Champions League 2

LOST -8

Yesterday's pick was extra satisfying, as not only did it win comfortably (only 1 goal, and a late goal at that!) but because my analysis was somewhat spot on. Arsenal did struggle a bit and Dinamo Kiev just didn't look threatening either, although both sides did have many good chances.

Tonight Chelsea and Liverpool are involved in Champions League action, but the picking is hard, even harder than yesterday's.

Chelsea looks like they are a class above Bordeaux, and normally should have no problems winning easily. However, they are thin on the bench and their weakness is if they get nothing out of their gameplan A, then they have no plan B. Therefore if Bordeaux manage to frustrate The Blues until half time, chances are Chelsea will lose the will to win. The game at Cluj comes to mind as a fine example. Therefore if Chelsea are not leading at HT, they're unlikely to win FT, but if they are leading at HT they have enough resolve to hold on to that lead till FT. Therefore, the outstanding bet here is Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT) at 2.87, as its virtually the same bet as an outright Chelsea win at 1.8.

Match: Bordeaux vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 2.875 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

Liverpool take on Marseille, and they will be looking to channel their frustration of drawing last weekend into securing passage into the next round of the CL. Torres and Gerrard will be reunited from the start, with plentiful of striking options in Kuyt and Keane. Furthermore, they will be well rested and full of energy as they're had 4 days since Saturday. Marseille, on the other hand, are a very poor side, with a porous defence. However, they do boast one of the most prolific strike force in Ligue 1, and need to get a result of their own from this match. They are not one to sit back and park the team bus in front of the goal. I am surprised that the line has been more or less set at 2.5, so here I will take the opportunity to go for over 2.5 @ evens instead of the stingy 1.44 on offer for a Liverpool win.

Match: Liverpool vs Marseille
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units