11 November 2008

LOST -5.60

A few big Carling Cup matches today involving Premiership teams, but the odds all seem to be spot on and there are question marks on the underdogs even though the Premiership teams will be treating the games as 2nd rate and giving their reserves/youths a run out.

I will personally be at the Arsenal game watching the youths in Red take on what will probably be a full strength Wigan squad. Normally this would be the perfect opportunity to back Wigan as they are a decent Premiership team, but without Heskey, a poor 0-0 draw against Stoke over the weekend, and difficulty playing against teams with pace, passing, and attacking talent they will face huge difficulties against Arsenal's eager and talented youngsters. Of course it could go the other way with Wigan exploiting the young Arsenal side, but its a game to watch rather than to bet at those odds! Arsenal could end up winning 4-0, or Wigan could frustrate the youngsters and exploit naive vulnerabilities later on to win. A match that could go either way.

Manchester United's youngsters take on QPR. QPR should normally be backable as they are a solid Championship side. But their recent form and their "lucky" late win against 9 men Cardiff over the weekend does not instill confidence. Plus they are operating under a caretaker manager as well as finding goals hard to come by recently. Another no bet game here for me.

And we arrive at Stoke vs Rotherham. Stoke had a poor game against Wigan over the weekend, drawing 0-0, and only mustering 1 attempt on goal. Their poor performance was a result of infighting amongst themselves on the pitch. Plus, they will be missing some first team players through injury and cup-tiedness, and it is likely that Pullis will be rotating 6-10 players in his squad just as in the last Carling Cup game. Stoke's priority at the moment seem to be scrapping out points in the Premiership for survival, and the Carling Cup will be low on the list of priorities. Rotherham on the other hand will be looking to live up to their name as "giant killers" and have no new injury concerns from over the weekend. Worryingly they are at 21st place in League 2, but at these odds its worth having a small punt on Rotherham. One worry here is that Delap might play, which will immediately be a major concern, but hopefully Pullis gives him a rest and protects the team's greatest asset for the EPL.


Match: Stoke vs Rotherham
Pick: Rotherham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.43 (Betfair)
Stake: 5.60 units