6 December 2008 - Premier League

LOST -5

There are two ways of looking at the Aston Villa overs pick. One is that it was horrible as the bet was shot to pieces within the first half when the score was 2-1. The other way to look at it is the match ended 2-1, only 1 goal off winning the bet, and that the first goal was just extremely lucky. From my analysis, you could have deduced that I was pro-Zilina, and my initial thoughts was to back them on Asian Handicap, which would have paid off handsomely, but I decided to be greedy and took the better odds on the unders. I have made this mistake time and time again, and from now on I am sticking to picking the winning sides rather than over/under as those are really more luck than anything else.

Match: Fulham vs Manchester City
Pick: Fulham (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.875 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Fulham have been doing well of late, getting draws against Aston Villa and Liverpool, showing that they are able to handle attacking sides. Their defence looks assured, and the team is starting to look like it is gelling together well. Man City will pose less of an attacking threat than the two previous teams to leave with only 1 point. Their goalless draw midweek showed how much they relied on a few creative talent for goals. Elano is out injured for this match, and Robinho, SWP, and Richards are all doubts, pointing towards a Man City team that will be short on ideas. They also played midweek whilst Fulham had a nice long rest, which will play into Fulham's pressing and containment tactics.


Match: Bolton vs Chelsea
Pick: Bolton +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.245 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

I opposed Chelsea last week in their derby with Arsenal, and my analysis was quite spot on, although it took a lucky break for Arsenal for them to come back and beat Chelsea. However, Chelsea do look very short on ideas. They will be missing J. Cole, Drogba, Di Santo, Carvalho, and Belletti, so Scolari will be short on options if the game isn't going his way. Anelka is a bit hit and miss, and as a sulky striker will expect all the balls to be presented to him on a silver platter. However, without creativity, how are Chelsea meant to do that? Bolton on the other hand are playing with full confidence, have a full squad, and are playing at home. The odds for Chelsea are way too short just because they have won 10 away games in a row.