22 November 2008

WON +10.37

After a rocky start, my picking has started to bear some fruit and even though I am still in negative territory I have complete faith that over time it will return to positive territory.

This weekend is especially hard to pick, what with the midweek friendlies playing havoc with all the teams involved. Of special concern is the trio at Man Utd that had to fly back from Brazil after a blistering match. With that in mind, two of this week's picks are underdog teams that should have more energy and preparation.

Match: Chelsea vs Newcastle
Pick: More goals in the 1st half
Odds: 3.1 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 8 units

The side only has one fit striker, Anelka, and he'll be his freshest in the 2nd half. Joe Cole will probably start, but he probably won't be able to last the whole match. With Kalou very likely to replace Anelka someway through the 2nd half if Chelsea is leading, I think most of the goals will be before the 50-60th minute, and odds of 3 for more goals in the first half seem generous. Especially since the new Chelsea give it their all right from the beginning. Newcastle have Owen back, but his match fitness is probably not 100% and he will be substituted at some point too. In which case Newcastle are hard pressed for other striking options.


Match: Manchester City vs Arsenal
Pick: Man City (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.5 (Skybet)
Stake: 5 units

Turmoil at Arsenal, Gallas being dropped for the match, and no Fabregas, Walcott, and perhaps Adebayor. Who's going to lead this side out and direct them on the field? I can't see them playing as a coherent unit against an attack minded Man City side. Plus with Gallas injured, Arsenal's fragile defence is like a house of cards. To be honest Man City had their own internal strife and Mark Hughes looks to be losing control of the team. But they have a strong squad at the moment and their performance against Hull was encouraging. This is a match where I'm choosing between two sides in trouble, but as these odds are likely to shorten tomorrow as more bad news about Arsenal leak out, its good to take some value.


Match: Portsmouth vs Hull
Pick: Hull +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.044 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Defoe and Diarra are rated 50/50 for the match, and Sol Campbell and Kranjcar are out already for Portsmouth. Their goalless draw with West Ham last weekend was frustrating, but without Defoe they will be missing a crucial striking option, and without Diarra as their rock in the midfield they risk being overrun by Hull, who are a pretty decent side. Hull Have shown they are no pushovers in the league, and their fighting spirit is very commendable. They have a full squad to choose from, although a worry is their 10 internationals maybe feeling some fatigue.


Match: Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Pick: Aston Villa +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Aston Villa are a quality side, and with the midweek rest for most of the squad, they'll be full of energy to play their pressing and high tempo game. Man Utd are in fine form of their own as well, but with many of their players coming back from internationals (especially the trio from Brazil) they might struggle to match Aston Villa in energy. Ferdinand is a doubt, and Berbatov is injured. Aston Villa will fancy their chances playing at home!