10 December 2008

LOST -3

Chelsea performed decently tonight, wrapping up qualification with a big scare halfway through when Cluj equalized. Anelka looks like a ghost, and Kalou looked like he had amnesia. The only redeemers were Joe Cole who had that sharpness about him and penetration down the flanks, and Drogba whose presence is always felt when he's on the pitch. Until both of them start playing full games, Chelsea are probably best avoided from a betting point of view.


Match: Porto vs Arsenal
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.27 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Let see. Both teams have already qualified. *0-0 alarm bells ring*. Odds for unders are pounded by punters. But if you look at the teams, I believe it will be a very open and free flowing game. Porto have scored 3,2,2 goals in their last 3 games. They have an attacking team, and will be looking to go for the win. Their playmaker, Meireles, was rested over the weekend specifically for this game. Why rest a playmaker when playing a decent midtable team (Setubal) when you're chasing in the local league? Only reason is that the manager views this match seriously.

Arsenal will be playing their youth team, which, although they lost to Burnley in the Carling Cup, are pretty decent. I believe they lost that time because they played against a team that excelled in pressing and containing. Porto will play no such tactic... they're a top team and are used to attacking, just like Arsenal. Hence I see lots of chances at either end, and lots of risk taking even when going one goal up as there's nothing to lose. Both teams have qualified. Hence I can't see why this odds for over is so high, and I must take a small bet on it. Of course, Champions League is not my speciality, so keeping it to small stakes.