WON +5
Fulham played well today, and the DNB bet was a push due to the draw, so no profit or loss there. They seem to be a solid side on the up, so I will be looking to profit from that in future weeks if the opportunity arises.
The Bolton bet on the other hand just looks daft now. One good analysis during Match of the Day was that Bolton came out playing football, and thus allowed Chelsea the freedom to create chances. Plus, I forgot to think about the fact that Chelsea start games very determined and play good first halves, its just the second half where they tend to run out of motivation and ideas. Solid win for Chelsea, and a good lesson for me.
Match: Everton vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa win (draw no bet)
Odds: 2 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units
I would be very surprised if Everton gets a goal in this match. No fit good strikers, and in their previous games with the lack of firepower up front they didn't have the midfielders to step in and take over the scoring roles. They had a somewhat random lucky goal against Tottenham, in a match that could have gone either way if it was reiterated many times. They created very few chances, and against an Aston Villa side that has near-top-4 quality, their chances will be limited again.
Aston Vila have been going through a rough patch in their last few games, with two 0-0 EPL draws before the 2-1 loss midweek to Zilina. However, it was mainly a 2nd string team that played on Thursday, and so many of the first teams players are well rested and fit. And that is the key thing, because Aston Villa did very well early season through their good fitness, stamina, and physical game that they lost when they had many fixtures in a short period.
They will have trouble breaking down an Everton side if the Toffees come out parking the bus in front of the goal, hence the DNB bet rather than an outright. Aston Villa are the better side here and the most likely to score, so I have to take them at Evens.
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