20 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +11.06

This weekend is the start of the busy Christmas period, and every Premier League manager will be aching to get a win to start off the festive season with a bang.

Blackburn's game will be eagerly observed to see if Sam Allardyce manages to turn their fortunes around. However, Stoke are resolute, but most likely will not have Delap's long throws, which is a big blow. Definitely a match to miss.

Bolton take on Portsmouth at home, but last week's loss to Aston Villa was very poor defensively, and I'm afraid defensive frailty is something not easily cured. Portsmouth played midweek but rested a couple of players in their midweek win, but lost 3-0 against Newcastle last weekend in what was described as "football" poverty. Its hard to say if Bolton's recent troubles are a blip or something more serious, so another match to sit out.

Aston Villa travel to East London to play West Ham, who had a somewhat deserved draw against Chelsea. They are becoming very solidly defensively in the back, and now lack that cutting edge up front. However, against Chelsea they showed glimpses of their counter potency, which should do damage against a dodgy Aston Villa back line. Aston Villa themselves are a good attacking side, with their top players refreshed after the midweek UEFA cup flogging their defense suffered. I am seriously tempted to take the over 2.5 goals offered, but West Ham's defensive solidarity might frustrate Aston Villa like it did against Chelsea.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough was a match that I was initially interested on. I've been betting on Fulham the past two weekends luckily with DNBs. They do look like a determined side that has gelled, but maybe too much as they are defensively solid, but toothless in attack. Middlesbrough were quite impressive last week against Arsenal, but more is required to make this any sort of bet.

Which leaves me with two matches where I will be betting on:

Match: Hull vs Sunderland
Pick: Sunderland (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.75 (BlueSQ)
Stake: 5 units

I feel very confident about this pick. Hull are playing very well at the moment, taking the 2-0 lead at Liverpool before conceding two goals and drawing the match. However, the two goals were probably more to do with Liverpool's defensive errors than Hull's skill. They come into this match without McShane and Gardner, two crucial defenders. They also do not have Craig Fagan. Their manager has labelled this as a "tough game", and he is absolutely right. Sunderland on the other hand look like they've turned the corner, with a very spirited performance against Man Utd despite losing, and their 4-0 thrashing of WBA. They've always had good attacking skill, and were just unlucky in a couple of matches that led to Roy Keane's resignation. Now that skill is showing finally, and they will have no further injuries since last weekend. With newfound confidence, the squad will sense the urgency to get a couple more points to safety. Hull are way too short, even if they are playing at home.

Match: West Ham vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.77 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

The Hammers had a pretty good display against Chelsea last week, but they were playing a side that had self doubts about doing well at home, plus they only did well the 1st half when Chelsea were lost playing a crappy formation without Drogba. 2nd half was different as Chelsea gained some urgency and played with pressure.

Aston Villa are full of confidence, with well rested top players, and now that they occupy 4th spot will have extra determination to consolidate that achievement. They were absolutely dominant against Bolton. Usually the fear here is that West Ham will park the bus in front of goal, but I think due to their optimistic draw at Chelsea last week, Zola won't be able to resist playing a more open tactic, which will only be to Villa's advantage. Cole and Bellamy are just not finding the net at the moment, while Agbonlahor is on a hot streak. Good odds for a side that many now consider to be better than Arsenal this season, against a side that, lets not forget, lost many of its top players over the summer.