2 December 2008 - Carling Cup

WON +0.36

Two matches tonight, both involving Premiership teams! The youngsters of Arsenal are taking on Burnley, in what many neutral fans hope will end with a fairytale ending with Arsenal winning by a huge margin. There’s nothing that gets the public more excited than a bunch of 17 year olds beating a professional football side. However, Burnley have been doing very well in the Championship this season, and their last performance against Chelsea in the previous round would have given them lots of confidence. I watched that game live, and the Burnley players were not at all intimidated and asserted themselves on the field. If they don’t fear the starting line-up of a world class side like Chelsea, they definitely won’t at home to a bunch of youngsters. On the other hand, Wenger’s kids will probably be slightly intimidated by the visit to the small town of Burnley. Odds for Arsenal are way too short, and I think Burnley will be able to get something out of this tie or it will end in a draw.

Match: Burnley vs Arsenal
Pick: Burnley +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.12 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units


The other match is Stoke against Derby, another Premier League –Championship matchup. Stoke should be gunning to reach the semis of the Carling Cup where they will then have a real chance of winning some silverware this season. They will be playing their first team with maybe one or two changes, and I really believe they have way too much quality for a Derby side who were just embarrassing in the Premier League last season and performing poorly in the Championship this year. They just can’t seem to stem the goals, especially with injured central defenders and two first team loan players cup-tied. Stoke are playing at home too, and have a decent defence against average Premiership sides, so I don’t see a problem here for them at all. In addition, Derby have very short defenders (1.8-1.9m), and they will have lots of difficulty dealing with Rory Delap's long throws.

Match: Stoke vs Derby
Pick: Stoke win
Odds: around 1.75 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units