1st December 2008

LOST -3

Match: Liverpool vs West Ham
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: Around 2, TBC
Stake: 3 units

New month, and hopefully a profitable few weeks before Christmas!

Liverpool take on West Ham in a match where I highly rate Liverpool to get something out of the match. West Ham are amazingly poor, getting a lucky win against Sunderland where they only had 2 shots on target, one of which hit the post. There was nothing special about their play, and their win can be put down to just pure luck. The problems with the team are systemic, and with the inexperienced Zola on the helm I highly doubt they will get any better anytime soon.

Liverpool on the other hand look like they are struggling, with a 1-0 win against Marseille and a 0-0 draw with Fulham. However, in the Marseille game they were truly the better side, and could have gone 2-0,3-0 up, except they slacked off and just allowed Marseille to pressure them all 2nd half. Against Fulham, they were frustrated by a visiting side that expended lots of energy pressing and suffocating, which turned out to be very effective in the end.

Against West Ham, Liverpool are well rested from their Champions League exertions on Wednesday, plus have a full squad sans Torres. They will be playing a West Ham that will not be parking a team bus in front of goal, and Liverpool do play at their best against teams that play open football as well. Frankly, I can't really see West Ham scoring as their attacking record is so poor, and their clean sheet in the last game was due more to the poor Sunderland side that only put up high balls that were dealt with easily. Liverpool will play more of a passing game and crossing from the flanks, which should give the Hammers defence lots of problems.

I'm wary that Liverpool might go 1-0 up and just switch off, but I think Benitez would have berated his players for doing that against Marseille and they would not do it again.