29 Novenber 2008 - EPL

WON +7.52

Right, back to the regular matches, and time to put behind the midweek debacle and get back to winning ways. Saturday sees 5 matches played, with not many bets that stand out. I believe the bookies are getting better and better at setting the lines and odds, and with none of the teams showing any great form any pick feels like a lottery.

With that in mind, I am only going to have 3 small bets for Saturday to keep the interest going.

Match: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.09 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 2 units

Villa look too short against a strong and stable Fulham side. They impressed with a win over Arsenal and a draw against Man Utd, but they do seem to struggle against teams that are physical and play a pressing game. Fulham are just that team, having beaten Tottenham and drawn with Liverpool, both teams that play very similar to Aston Villa. Both managers have a full squad to choose from and the benefit of a midweek rest, so I expect a lot of midfield battles and start/stop play as Fulham frustrate Aston Villa. Martin O’Neill has stated that this will be a difficult game, and frankly I’m surprised the odds for Villa are at 1.66. Take the Fulham handicap here!


Match: Wigan vs West Brom
Pick: Wigan
Odds: 1.83 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units

In the other match, Wigan have way too much class against West Brom, although they haven’t been able to realize it so far this season. They are without Zaki, which is a blow, but they welcome back Boyce and Melchiot to strengthen their defence. West Brom, on the other hand, pretend like they are Arsenal and try to play passing football, but without the skill or the talent they fall well flat. Wigan’s defence should hold up strongly, and the only doubt is that Wigan’s attack is hit or miss at times.


Match: Sunderland vs Bolton
Pick: Bolton +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

I wasn't intending to pick this last one, but upon further analysis it does like Bolton are finding some kind of form and are better than their odds suggest. Sunderland are poor, and I believe its a problem on the managerial level with no quick fix solution. It will be a tight match for sure, but somehow I see Bolton grinding out a small win or a draw here.