The Money Bonzai has moved!

To all my regular followers,

The Money Bonzai now has a new home, and a new, professional-looking website, at http://www.moneybonzai.info. Although Blogspot was the perfect place when I started out blogging about my football picks and analysis, it has now outgrown its purpose. By migrating to a professional-looking, fully customizable site, I will hopefully be able to deliver a much better service, as well as having the freedom to adapt my website to my needs over time.

I am therefore going to stop posting on this Blogspot blog, and every of my picks, analysis, and articles will be on the new MoneyBonzai.info website.

As always, the service will remain free for all!

Best of luck to everyone, and may we all continue to make money from the Bookies!

Everton to Fire Blanks

WON +3.60

A good win on Sunday takes it 3 out of 3 for the weekend! Newcastle were somewhat lucky, Tottenham deserved a draw I thought. But as I said, the Toons' attack is getting stronger by the game.

On to Monday's sole game:

Match: Everton vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea to keep a clean sheet
Odds: 2.20 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

A small bet, as from experience its always cautious to limit the stakes on betting markets where I don't have that much experience in. I might be good at picking AvB results, but when it comes to over/unders and speciality markets like clean sheets I like to play it safe.

For me this looks like outstanding odds, as Chelsea have a formidable defense and clean sheets in many of their recent games. To top it off Everton really have no strikers for this match, with Tim Cahill set to play as a makeshift one. That was alright against Man City, as their defense is crap, plain to see in Sunday's match against WBA. Chelsea are a whole different prospect.

I also expect David Moyes to set his side up more cautiously, maybe playing two deep midfield players to control Lampard and Deco. This will probably have the effect of "abandoning" Cahill, who will be up front on his own.

For me the odds of Chelsea keeping a clean sheet above evens is a must bet.

21 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +4.1

A very good Saturday, with both picks winning. Sunderland were amazing in their demolition of Hull, although they left it quite late. Aston Villa left it late too, and West Ham did match them for most of the match, but Villa just had that extra quality in the counter attacks that made them so dangerous. Very dodgy defending though and leaky midfield, so I will be looking to oppose Villa in the coming weeks.

Today, there are only 3 matches to choose from. The top one, of course, is Arsenal vs Liveprool, but after spending quite alot of time analyzing it I'm not going to have a bet. The reason is that the odds seem fairly priced, and I can't really see one team being very dominant over the other. I favour Arsenal, but their odds are too short for me to back against a Liverpool side that does as well on the road as at home.

Man City should be a banker against WBA, if you look at the quality on both sides. WBA don't even have a Premiership striker anymore, and will struggle to score. However, Man City have dressing room instability, and are poor of late. Also, Robinho is very doubtful for this match plus they have had to travel back from Spain on Friday. So another match to watch and observe for future weeks.

That only leaves the last fixture:

Match: Newcastle vs Tottenham Hotspurs
Pick: Newcastle win (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.82 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Newcastle look like they are seriously shaping up and clicking together as a team. Their defense has become alot more solid in recent games, due to Kinnear imposing defensive training 4 days a week. In addition, as their attacking players come back to fitness, Owen has been getting a good supply of balls and rediscovering his deadly form. I believe Newcastle are on the cusp of turning their season around with a run of a few wins. Their 3-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend was a very convincing performance.

Tottenham have had their own revival too, but it looks to be running out of gas lately. There was the 2-2 draw midweek that followed the stalemate against Man Utd, where they didn't really create many chances. Only a few players were rested on Thursday, and it is a long way up to Newcastle. Spurs also have a defensive crisis, with King and Woodgate both big doubtfuls, and possibly no Modric, Lennon, and Jenas. Their makeshift rearguard did well last weekend, but that was against a Man Utd side that lacked any sort of incisveness.

20 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +11.06

This weekend is the start of the busy Christmas period, and every Premier League manager will be aching to get a win to start off the festive season with a bang.

Blackburn's game will be eagerly observed to see if Sam Allardyce manages to turn their fortunes around. However, Stoke are resolute, but most likely will not have Delap's long throws, which is a big blow. Definitely a match to miss.

Bolton take on Portsmouth at home, but last week's loss to Aston Villa was very poor defensively, and I'm afraid defensive frailty is something not easily cured. Portsmouth played midweek but rested a couple of players in their midweek win, but lost 3-0 against Newcastle last weekend in what was described as "football" poverty. Its hard to say if Bolton's recent troubles are a blip or something more serious, so another match to sit out.

Aston Villa travel to East London to play West Ham, who had a somewhat deserved draw against Chelsea. They are becoming very solidly defensively in the back, and now lack that cutting edge up front. However, against Chelsea they showed glimpses of their counter potency, which should do damage against a dodgy Aston Villa back line. Aston Villa themselves are a good attacking side, with their top players refreshed after the midweek UEFA cup flogging their defense suffered. I am seriously tempted to take the over 2.5 goals offered, but West Ham's defensive solidarity might frustrate Aston Villa like it did against Chelsea.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough was a match that I was initially interested on. I've been betting on Fulham the past two weekends luckily with DNBs. They do look like a determined side that has gelled, but maybe too much as they are defensively solid, but toothless in attack. Middlesbrough were quite impressive last week against Arsenal, but more is required to make this any sort of bet.

Which leaves me with two matches where I will be betting on:

Match: Hull vs Sunderland
Pick: Sunderland (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.75 (BlueSQ)
Stake: 5 units

I feel very confident about this pick. Hull are playing very well at the moment, taking the 2-0 lead at Liverpool before conceding two goals and drawing the match. However, the two goals were probably more to do with Liverpool's defensive errors than Hull's skill. They come into this match without McShane and Gardner, two crucial defenders. They also do not have Craig Fagan. Their manager has labelled this as a "tough game", and he is absolutely right. Sunderland on the other hand look like they've turned the corner, with a very spirited performance against Man Utd despite losing, and their 4-0 thrashing of WBA. They've always had good attacking skill, and were just unlucky in a couple of matches that led to Roy Keane's resignation. Now that skill is showing finally, and they will have no further injuries since last weekend. With newfound confidence, the squad will sense the urgency to get a couple more points to safety. Hull are way too short, even if they are playing at home.

Match: West Ham vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.77 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

The Hammers had a pretty good display against Chelsea last week, but they were playing a side that had self doubts about doing well at home, plus they only did well the 1st half when Chelsea were lost playing a crappy formation without Drogba. 2nd half was different as Chelsea gained some urgency and played with pressure.

Aston Villa are full of confidence, with well rested top players, and now that they occupy 4th spot will have extra determination to consolidate that achievement. They were absolutely dominant against Bolton. Usually the fear here is that West Ham will park the bus in front of goal, but I think due to their optimistic draw at Chelsea last week, Zola won't be able to resist playing a more open tactic, which will only be to Villa's advantage. Cole and Bellamy are just not finding the net at the moment, while Agbonlahor is on a hot streak. Good odds for a side that many now consider to be better than Arsenal this season, against a side that, lets not forget, lost many of its top players over the summer.

18 December 2008 - UEFA Cup

WON +3.54

Match: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Spartak Moscow
Pick: Spartak Moscow +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.18 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Yesterday’s pick was horrible with hindsight. Aston Villa were dreadful as predicted, but surprisingly Hamburg were amazing, especially their strikers. The match just showed how shallow the Villa squad is, and Hamburg well deserved their 3-0 win. However, it was only 1 goal away from being a winning bet, so I won’t think about it too much.

Tonight I am also going for a small stakes bet, as the UEFA cup is not my speciality. Spurs have more or less secured qualification in the UEFA cup as long as they don’t lose by more than 2 goals. Spartak Moscow, however, need at least a draw and ideally a win to qualify. Their Russian domestic season has ended, so this is one last match they are playing before having a long winter break. They have been in London since last week acclimatising, and played a friendly game against Chelsea Reserves on Saturday. No doubt because of Abramovich’s connections, the coach will probably have been assisted by the Chelsea backroom staff in gathering info about Spurs.

Spurs will be playing a weakened squad, and are already suffering from many injuries as well as players being cup-tied, so it will be like the Aston Villa case last night. Spartak might not be the best team out there, but I believe they will give Tottenham a hard time and odds for Spurs are too low even if playing at home.

LOST -3

Match: Hamburg vs Aston Villa
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.79 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Small stakes as I do not know Hamburg too well since I concentrate on the EPL. However, they seem to have struggled in their domestic league recently. Although winning in the last 2 games, they had to labour over Frankfurt to get their one goal lead. On top of that, about a week ago the manager remarked that his team was a bit tired and jaded, and probably looking forward to the long Christmas break they will be getting after this game.

Aston Villa on the other hand were amazing on the weekend, beating Bolton 4-1. However, less than 5 of the team that went out for that match will start this one, with Young, Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, and Laursen all left at home. These are Aston Villa's best players, and one could argue without the first 4 (and Carew, who is out injured), Aston Villa will look disjointed in attack and toothless. Indeed, Hamburg are no pushovers themselves, and will probably field their strongest team possible since they are getting a long break anyways. They are only 2 points behind the leaders in the Bundesliga, and clearly have a strong team.

So we have a team that has no credible attack, playing a tired and jaded team that is one win away from topping the Bundesliga domestically. On top of that both teams have qualified, with only top spot to play for. Quite a good chance that it will be unders.

14 December 2008 - Review

I think that is the worst bet that I ever picked. It was all looking good before kickoff, with the odds drifting tighter from 2.49 to 2.25, but I think Scolari showed today that he is actually a stubborn manager that cannot change when change is needed.

Drogba was fit to start from the beginning, but he stuck to playing Anelka as a lone striker, which just clearly doesn't work. It showed as Chelsea became alot better and potent in the second half after the introduction of Drogba. Worse still was the substitution of Joe Cole for Kalou, instead of taking the very poor Deco off. Deco looked like a robot, swinging in crosses that were right to the keeper and too high.

I can't blame the players or the teams for this bet, except for myself. I vowed a couple of posts ago never to blinded by my Chelsea bias, but I was again this time. West Ham got a fair goal, but to be honest spent most of the match defending.

Still simmering inside, but hopefully this mistake has taught me a valuable lesson.

14 December 2008 - Premier League

LOST -5

Match: Chelsea vs West Ham
Pick: Chelsea -2 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.42 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

There has been alot said of Chelsea's home advantage suddenly becoming a disadvantage this season. This should not be further from the truth as it makes no sense. The lack of home form has coincided with major injury to key players in recent weeks, for example Drogba and Joe Cole.

An interesting game was the midweek one against Cluj, where Chelsea seemed to struggle until the introduction of Drogba. Anelka really is a spoiled player and although he is a good striker, he needs the ball to placed perfectly at his feet and for defences to give him space. Drogba, on the other hand, worked to create space and chances, and got a wonderful goal. Joe Cole added some spark to the side with his incisive runs and passing. It is good that Drogba is now eligible once again, as Scolari can now consign the hopeless Kalou to the bench.

The normal handicap line for this match is around -1.75, but I reason why not take bigger odds at -2 as if Chelsea manage to get two goals past West Ham, they can surely get more.

13 December 2008 - Premier League

PUSH +0

There are several possibilities today, but all but one of the bets depends on the lineup and those will only be known in more detail closer towards the matches. I will of course post them here as soon as I make my bets, but it might not be appearing on Betshoot.com as it could be too late for their 1-hour policy.

At the moment there is only 1 confirmed bet.

Match: Stoke vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.18 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Fulham have been playing very well recently, you can see the team gelling with their defense solid and sound and their offense gaining some potency. They have had a couple of draws lately but they are increasing in confidence and I believe they will go on to make a good run of results in the next few games. No injuries, same XI as played in the last couple of games, and better teamwork.

Stoke have been doing well too this season, being one of the surprise packages. They have great spirit, having come from 2-0 down at HT in Newcastle to draw 2-2. However, they have struggled against Derby and Hull recently, showing that quality wise they are still upper-Championship. Griffin, their captain, is not available for this match, and Shawcross and Kitson are doubtful. Their manager has even conceded that this will be a "tough game", and I believe so too. Fulham have been poor on the road so far, but as you know I don't believe in these statistics as they could easily just be down to luck.

Fulham are better than Stoke, and getting odds on them above evens is a bargain for the AH+0/Draw No Bet.

Champions League Knockout Stage Draw

As the final round of the Champions League group stage has finished, we now eagerly look forward to the draw for the knockout round taking place on Friday.Rules state that winners of a group go in one pot, and runners up in another, where they will be drawn so that a group winner will play a group runner up. In addition, teams from the same country won't be drawn against each other, and the winner of group X won't be drawn with the runner up that was in the same group.This throws up a whole range of possibilities for Chelsea, as well as some odds. Chelsea can only draw Panathinaikos, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Porto, and Juventus, as they are ineligible to draw against Man United, Liverpool, and Roma. However, each of the teams in the group winner pot also have their own restrictions on who they can draw from the runners up pot that Chelsea is in.With a bit of excel magic, here are the odds of Chelsea being drawn against the following teams:

Barcelona - 28.77%
Porto - 19.18%
Juventus - 19.18%
Panathinaikos - 16.44%
Bayern Munich - 16.44%

Looks like Scolari had better be having sleepless nights, as a Barca draw is most likely!!

10 December 2008 Review

I watched the entire Porto vs Arsenal match, and my analysis was correct except for the part about Arsenal. In truth Arsenal couldn't string together even 3 passes, and even when they had the ball they lacked that creative spark to create chances. Porto on the other hand played amazingly well, what with the long balls, counter, and one touch passing. Hulk was exactly what his name implied. And in all honesty they thoroughly deserved their win, and actually deserved to win by more if they had not been so slack with their goalscoring opportunities.

Out of all the chances missed by Porto, they should have at least been able to convert one more to win my bet. Still, losing by 1 goal is not too bad. However, its a question once again of me picking losing O/U goal bets. If I had forced myself not to consider O/U's, I would have picked Porto to win, although they seemed quite short seeing how a draw would not be a bad result for both teams either. Still, someone remind me next time NOT to bet any over/unders!!

10 December 2008

LOST -3

Chelsea performed decently tonight, wrapping up qualification with a big scare halfway through when Cluj equalized. Anelka looks like a ghost, and Kalou looked like he had amnesia. The only redeemers were Joe Cole who had that sharpness about him and penetration down the flanks, and Drogba whose presence is always felt when he's on the pitch. Until both of them start playing full games, Chelsea are probably best avoided from a betting point of view.


Match: Porto vs Arsenal
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.27 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Let see. Both teams have already qualified. *0-0 alarm bells ring*. Odds for unders are pounded by punters. But if you look at the teams, I believe it will be a very open and free flowing game. Porto have scored 3,2,2 goals in their last 3 games. They have an attacking team, and will be looking to go for the win. Their playmaker, Meireles, was rested over the weekend specifically for this game. Why rest a playmaker when playing a decent midtable team (Setubal) when you're chasing in the local league? Only reason is that the manager views this match seriously.

Arsenal will be playing their youth team, which, although they lost to Burnley in the Carling Cup, are pretty decent. I believe they lost that time because they played against a team that excelled in pressing and containing. Porto will play no such tactic... they're a top team and are used to attacking, just like Arsenal. Hence I see lots of chances at either end, and lots of risk taking even when going one goal up as there's nothing to lose. Both teams have qualified. Hence I can't see why this odds for over is so high, and I must take a small bet on it. Of course, Champions League is not my speciality, so keeping it to small stakes.

9 December 2008 - Champions League

LOST -2

Match: Chelsea vs Cluj
Pick: Ballack to score first goal
Odds: 8 (Skybet)
Stake: 2 units

Chelsea go into this must-win game, and to me their home form seems very baffling. They are missing many first team players, such as Lampard and Malouda. I believe Cluj will approach the game just as they did in Romania; sit back and defend deep with lots of body in the box and frustrate Chelsea. They know it works, and they would be foolish not to try it.

Chelsea will be frustrated, especially if Anelka is up front wandering around like a lost sheep in a crowded box. However, Chelsea will be desperate to score goals, and the only way would be from outside the box or through corners.

Ballack hasn't been sensational lately, quietly toiling match in match out. However, he will probably be taking all the free kicks and penalties in the absence of Lampard, as well as being a big threat in corners and crosses. The odds on him (8+) to score the first goal is ridiculous... the goal is likely to come from outside the box or from a dead ball, and who better than Ballack?

Small stakes for this bet, as its just for fun while watching the game but the returns are great.

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7 & 8 December Review

Apologies if the posts from now on look different! I am trying out a new blogging program called Qumana that seems to be really useful for the Mac.

I've been spot on with both Aston Villa and Tottenham in my analysis over the last two days, and I have a good feeling that this might be the beginning of a good streak. I caught the second half of the Spurs game just now, and they were totally dominant up to the 1st goal, tearing into the West Ham side down the flanks. The Hammers didn't have any scoring chances at all, until after the first goal was scored when for some reason they missed from a few few feet. Poor Zola, that should have been a goal, and if it had the match would probably have ended 1-1. But O'Hara then scored a beautiful goal for Tottenham, and the match was over. What impressed me the most about Spurs was that after the second goal, they kept their composure and wound down the clock. Their teamwork and level-headedness was impressive... I think they strung like 15 passes together at a time, all in confined spaces, to deny the Hammers any chance of getting the ball. Impressive. They do look like a solid side now, and anyone who says they just had a lucky few games with a new manager is talking bull. West Ham, on the other hand, look to be that initially lucky side.

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8 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +5

Match: West Ham vs Tottenham
Pick: Tottenham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: Evens (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Apologies for this late post, I meant to publish it earlier but have only just arrived home from work. I will make it short, but succinct.

West Ham have done well over the last few games, keeping clean sheets, most notably against Liverpool last weekend. However, what the scoreline failed to show was that West Ham didn't really have any chances on goal, whereas Liverpool bombarded the West Ham goal from the start and it is astonishing that none of their attempts went in. I think they have been lucky so far, and their lack of goal-scoring chances have been worrying.

Tottenham are going through their own stumbling block of their own, losing 1-0 to Everton last week. However, I believe they have far better players than West Ham, and definitely will be able to score a goal or two. They played an average game midweek, but Redknapp had rested some players who will be making a return to this game.

As the odds are even, I can't help but side with Tottenham here. Sure, they are playing away, but away means a short limo ride across town.

7 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +5

Fulham played well today, and the DNB bet was a push due to the draw, so no profit or loss there. They seem to be a solid side on the up, so I will be looking to profit from that in future weeks if the opportunity arises.

The Bolton bet on the other hand just looks daft now. One good analysis during Match of the Day was that Bolton came out playing football, and thus allowed Chelsea the freedom to create chances. Plus, I forgot to think about the fact that Chelsea start games very determined and play good first halves, its just the second half where they tend to run out of motivation and ideas. Solid win for Chelsea, and a good lesson for me.

Match: Everton vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa win (draw no bet)
Odds: 2 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

I would be very surprised if Everton gets a goal in this match. No fit good strikers, and in their previous games with the lack of firepower up front they didn't have the midfielders to step in and take over the scoring roles. They had a somewhat random lucky goal against Tottenham, in a match that could have gone either way if it was reiterated many times. They created very few chances, and against an Aston Villa side that has near-top-4 quality, their chances will be limited again.

Aston Vila have been going through a rough patch in their last few games, with two 0-0 EPL draws before the 2-1 loss midweek to Zilina. However, it was mainly a 2nd string team that played on Thursday, and so many of the first teams players are well rested and fit. And that is the key thing, because Aston Villa did very well early season through their good fitness, stamina, and physical game that they lost when they had many fixtures in a short period.

They will have trouble breaking down an Everton side if the Toffees come out parking the bus in front of the goal, hence the DNB bet rather than an outright. Aston Villa are the better side here and the most likely to score, so I have to take them at Evens.

6 December 2008 - Premier League

LOST -5

There are two ways of looking at the Aston Villa overs pick. One is that it was horrible as the bet was shot to pieces within the first half when the score was 2-1. The other way to look at it is the match ended 2-1, only 1 goal off winning the bet, and that the first goal was just extremely lucky. From my analysis, you could have deduced that I was pro-Zilina, and my initial thoughts was to back them on Asian Handicap, which would have paid off handsomely, but I decided to be greedy and took the better odds on the unders. I have made this mistake time and time again, and from now on I am sticking to picking the winning sides rather than over/under as those are really more luck than anything else.

Match: Fulham vs Manchester City
Pick: Fulham (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.875 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Fulham have been doing well of late, getting draws against Aston Villa and Liverpool, showing that they are able to handle attacking sides. Their defence looks assured, and the team is starting to look like it is gelling together well. Man City will pose less of an attacking threat than the two previous teams to leave with only 1 point. Their goalless draw midweek showed how much they relied on a few creative talent for goals. Elano is out injured for this match, and Robinho, SWP, and Richards are all doubts, pointing towards a Man City team that will be short on ideas. They also played midweek whilst Fulham had a nice long rest, which will play into Fulham's pressing and containment tactics.


Match: Bolton vs Chelsea
Pick: Bolton +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.245 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

I opposed Chelsea last week in their derby with Arsenal, and my analysis was quite spot on, although it took a lucky break for Arsenal for them to come back and beat Chelsea. However, Chelsea do look very short on ideas. They will be missing J. Cole, Drogba, Di Santo, Carvalho, and Belletti, so Scolari will be short on options if the game isn't going his way. Anelka is a bit hit and miss, and as a sulky striker will expect all the balls to be presented to him on a silver platter. However, without creativity, how are Chelsea meant to do that? Bolton on the other hand are playing with full confidence, have a full squad, and are playing at home. The odds for Chelsea are way too short just because they have won 10 away games in a row.

4 December 2008 - UEFA Cup

LOST -4

Match: Aston Villa vs MSK Zilina
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.05 (Bet365)
Stake: 4 units

Aston Villa are viewing this match as an opportunity to rest some of their first team players since they already have 6 points from their first two games. Both the potent strikers, Carew and Agbonlahor, are not even on the bench and there might be other changes to the squad.

MSK Zilina have only 1 point so far, and judging by the comments from their manager they're not expecting to progress from the group. They are not a bad side, doing well in their domestic league, and Villa Park isn't exactly the most intimidating of venues to play at. I see them parking the bus trying to nick a goalless draw, and frankly Aston Villa will probably just sit in 1st gear if they go 1-0 up.

Good odds for a match that looks under.

2 December 2008 - Carling Cup

WON +0.36

Two matches tonight, both involving Premiership teams! The youngsters of Arsenal are taking on Burnley, in what many neutral fans hope will end with a fairytale ending with Arsenal winning by a huge margin. There’s nothing that gets the public more excited than a bunch of 17 year olds beating a professional football side. However, Burnley have been doing very well in the Championship this season, and their last performance against Chelsea in the previous round would have given them lots of confidence. I watched that game live, and the Burnley players were not at all intimidated and asserted themselves on the field. If they don’t fear the starting line-up of a world class side like Chelsea, they definitely won’t at home to a bunch of youngsters. On the other hand, Wenger’s kids will probably be slightly intimidated by the visit to the small town of Burnley. Odds for Arsenal are way too short, and I think Burnley will be able to get something out of this tie or it will end in a draw.

Match: Burnley vs Arsenal
Pick: Burnley +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.12 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units


The other match is Stoke against Derby, another Premier League –Championship matchup. Stoke should be gunning to reach the semis of the Carling Cup where they will then have a real chance of winning some silverware this season. They will be playing their first team with maybe one or two changes, and I really believe they have way too much quality for a Derby side who were just embarrassing in the Premier League last season and performing poorly in the Championship this year. They just can’t seem to stem the goals, especially with injured central defenders and two first team loan players cup-tied. Stoke are playing at home too, and have a decent defence against average Premiership sides, so I don’t see a problem here for them at all. In addition, Derby have very short defenders (1.8-1.9m), and they will have lots of difficulty dealing with Rory Delap's long throws.

Match: Stoke vs Derby
Pick: Stoke win
Odds: around 1.75 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

1st December 2008

LOST -3

Match: Liverpool vs West Ham
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: Around 2, TBC
Stake: 3 units

New month, and hopefully a profitable few weeks before Christmas!

Liverpool take on West Ham in a match where I highly rate Liverpool to get something out of the match. West Ham are amazingly poor, getting a lucky win against Sunderland where they only had 2 shots on target, one of which hit the post. There was nothing special about their play, and their win can be put down to just pure luck. The problems with the team are systemic, and with the inexperienced Zola on the helm I highly doubt they will get any better anytime soon.

Liverpool on the other hand look like they are struggling, with a 1-0 win against Marseille and a 0-0 draw with Fulham. However, in the Marseille game they were truly the better side, and could have gone 2-0,3-0 up, except they slacked off and just allowed Marseille to pressure them all 2nd half. Against Fulham, they were frustrated by a visiting side that expended lots of energy pressing and suffocating, which turned out to be very effective in the end.

Against West Ham, Liverpool are well rested from their Champions League exertions on Wednesday, plus have a full squad sans Torres. They will be playing a West Ham that will not be parking a team bus in front of goal, and Liverpool do play at their best against teams that play open football as well. Frankly, I can't really see West Ham scoring as their attacking record is so poor, and their clean sheet in the last game was due more to the poor Sunderland side that only put up high balls that were dealt with easily. Liverpool will play more of a passing game and crossing from the flanks, which should give the Hammers defence lots of problems.

I'm wary that Liverpool might go 1-0 up and just switch off, but I think Benitez would have berated his players for doing that against Marseille and they would not do it again.