30 November 2008

WON +0.4

A surprising result as all 3 picks won on Saturday! To be fair two of them (Fulham and Wigan) were somewhat lucky to win, with only the Bolton one well deserved. However, luck is all part of the betting game, and I take the bad with the good with the faith that over time I will make better educated bets.

This Sunday I'm off to Stamford Bridge to catch the match between Chelsea and Arsenal, in what will be a thrilling game. As a Chelsea fan it pains me to place bets against my own team, but the odds available were just too tempting.


Match: Tottenham vs Everton
Pick: Tottenham to win
Odds: 2 (William Hill)
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have good players. We have seen what confidence has done to transform the side. And frankly, their last two games against NEC and Blackburn were assured performances in which they could have won by a greater scoreline than 1-0 and never looked likely to have lost. They had several players rested midweek (Pavyluchenko, Corluka, King, and Jenas) which should be a boost when they return for this match. Everton on the other hand have an attacking crisis, with Vaughan, Aniche, Pienaar, and Saha all injured and unavailable for this match. They were unlucky to lose to Wigan, but this was due to their lack of attacking edge even though they had the majority of possession, which is made worse by their injuries for this match. Take Tottenham here who are at nice odds to win at home.


Match: Chelsea vs Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.08 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

What bollocks! The odds for a Chelsea win are even lower than a Man Utd win over Man City, whom we know are definitely not top 4 class yet. In addition, Chelsea seem to have hit a stumbling block recently. Even though their recent results haven't been a disaster, they look like reverting back to the boring Mourinho-era side, not the sexy creative Scolari side we saw earlier this season. Increasingly, they look unable to create quality chances in the final third. They are starting to be like Arsenal; without Drogba, they have no plan B if their plan A doesn't work. Arsenal have been going through their own rough patch recently, but with Fabregas as the new captain and a decent performance midweek, they will rise to the challenge against Chelsea as they know they cannot afford to lose any more points in the title chase. They will be boosted by the return of Adebayor, Nasri, and Sagna, which should give them a good attacking edge. Chelsea should be closer to like 2.3 or 2.3 for the win, and not 1.85, and for that reason the Asian Handicap for Arsenal look a good bet.

29 Novenber 2008 - EPL

WON +7.52

Right, back to the regular matches, and time to put behind the midweek debacle and get back to winning ways. Saturday sees 5 matches played, with not many bets that stand out. I believe the bookies are getting better and better at setting the lines and odds, and with none of the teams showing any great form any pick feels like a lottery.

With that in mind, I am only going to have 3 small bets for Saturday to keep the interest going.

Match: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.09 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 2 units

Villa look too short against a strong and stable Fulham side. They impressed with a win over Arsenal and a draw against Man Utd, but they do seem to struggle against teams that are physical and play a pressing game. Fulham are just that team, having beaten Tottenham and drawn with Liverpool, both teams that play very similar to Aston Villa. Both managers have a full squad to choose from and the benefit of a midweek rest, so I expect a lot of midfield battles and start/stop play as Fulham frustrate Aston Villa. Martin O’Neill has stated that this will be a difficult game, and frankly I’m surprised the odds for Villa are at 1.66. Take the Fulham handicap here!


Match: Wigan vs West Brom
Pick: Wigan
Odds: 1.83 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units

In the other match, Wigan have way too much class against West Brom, although they haven’t been able to realize it so far this season. They are without Zaki, which is a blow, but they welcome back Boyce and Melchiot to strengthen their defence. West Brom, on the other hand, pretend like they are Arsenal and try to play passing football, but without the skill or the talent they fall well flat. Wigan’s defence should hold up strongly, and the only doubt is that Wigan’s attack is hit or miss at times.


Match: Sunderland vs Bolton
Pick: Bolton +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

I wasn't intending to pick this last one, but upon further analysis it does like Bolton are finding some kind of form and are better than their odds suggest. Sunderland are poor, and I believe its a problem on the managerial level with no quick fix solution. It will be a tight match for sure, but somehow I see Bolton grinding out a small win or a draw here.

27 November 2008 Review

Oh my God. What a game.

Milan had a whole host of chances in the 1st half, and really should have led. However, their slackness and non-urgency punished them badly. Portsmouth went 2-0 up, and Milan looked like a side that had given up. Inzaghi hit the post THREE times, and it just seemed like it was not going to be their night.

Then Ronaldinho comes out of nowhere and scores a trademark free kick from some distance out, and suddenly Milan are back in the game. One horrible defensive error from Portsmouth allowed Inzaghi to collect a pass in the middle of the penalty box, and with a class striker like him the goal was a done deal.

I am just so frustrated because I came so close to winning, and probably should have, in my opinion. Milan should have wrapped up the first half leading 1-0, instead Portsmouth gained confidence and Milan had doubts if anything would go their way this night. Horrible 3 bet losing streak at the moment, and hopefully this weekend will produce some bets to snap it.

27 November 2008 - UEFA Cup

LOST -5

Last night's two picks were nothing less than embarassing. Chelsea went draw/draw, and didn't even look like remotely scoring in the 1st half. Liverpool started out brightly and grabbed a goal, but were content to sit back and let Marseille pressure. The French side were very wasteful, and if they had equalized no doubt a third goal would have come easily when Liverpool push back. Sadly it ended 1-0.

I've got to learn to be patient and do more no bets. The analogy here would be playing tight in poker and folding most hands pre-flop.

Tonight, however, I've spotted one good value bet.

Match: Portsmouth vs AC Milan
Pick: AC Milan
Odds: 2.25 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Milan are definitely a class above Portsmouth, and although they will be resting some 1st team players like Ronaldinho, they have alot of class especially in midfield. They like to play a passing game, and comments about the pitch being suited for that is reassuring, as players saying that they have now almost reached top gear as a team. Their recent form is a bit worrying, but they are against a Portsmouth side that will be missing Defoe, Diarra, and most likely Kranjcar and Campbell. Tony Adams has talked down the hype of this game, and the opinion is that he is concentrating on getting league results rather than pushing an uphill battle to try to get to the next round of the UEFA Cup. In fact, their squad is rather thin, and Adams would be hard pressed to make any meaningful substitutions during the game if the need arises. Milan, on the other hand, will be able to introduce their big guns from the bench if things don't go their way.

Victory will ensure Milan qualify, and they should definitely have the class here to do that. Plus the odds are rather nice because in European competitions, the odds of English clubs are always too short.

26 November 2008 - Champions League 2

LOST -8

Yesterday's pick was extra satisfying, as not only did it win comfortably (only 1 goal, and a late goal at that!) but because my analysis was somewhat spot on. Arsenal did struggle a bit and Dinamo Kiev just didn't look threatening either, although both sides did have many good chances.

Tonight Chelsea and Liverpool are involved in Champions League action, but the picking is hard, even harder than yesterday's.

Chelsea looks like they are a class above Bordeaux, and normally should have no problems winning easily. However, they are thin on the bench and their weakness is if they get nothing out of their gameplan A, then they have no plan B. Therefore if Bordeaux manage to frustrate The Blues until half time, chances are Chelsea will lose the will to win. The game at Cluj comes to mind as a fine example. Therefore if Chelsea are not leading at HT, they're unlikely to win FT, but if they are leading at HT they have enough resolve to hold on to that lead till FT. Therefore, the outstanding bet here is Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT) at 2.87, as its virtually the same bet as an outright Chelsea win at 1.8.

Match: Bordeaux vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 2.875 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

Liverpool take on Marseille, and they will be looking to channel their frustration of drawing last weekend into securing passage into the next round of the CL. Torres and Gerrard will be reunited from the start, with plentiful of striking options in Kuyt and Keane. Furthermore, they will be well rested and full of energy as they're had 4 days since Saturday. Marseille, on the other hand, are a very poor side, with a porous defence. However, they do boast one of the most prolific strike force in Ligue 1, and need to get a result of their own from this match. They are not one to sit back and park the team bus in front of the goal. I am surprised that the line has been more or less set at 2.5, so here I will take the opportunity to go for over 2.5 @ evens instead of the stingy 1.44 on offer for a Liverpool win.

Match: Liverpool vs Marseille
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

25 November 2008 - Champions League

WON +3.3

Match: Arsenal vs Dinamo Kiev
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.1 (SkyBet)
Stake: 3 units

There are two schools of thought for this game. One is Arsenal will bounce back and do a 6-0 and show their class. The other is that they'll disintegrate once again and lose embarassingly. I subscribe to neither opinion, as the first is flawed seeing how they have so many first team players missing, and the second is equally fantasy as Dinamo just don't have the quality. What I see if a Dinamo side well rested (no game over the weekend), and will probably press and frustrate Arsenal. The Gunners have a lack of first team quality with all their injured players, and will struggle to create chances as usual. A Gallas led backline should be able to deal with Dinamo's 2nd rate attack, especially if they play with a lone striker up front. Odds are just too good in this situation to pass up!

Wigan vs Everton Review

It was so frustrating as Everton could have definitely pulled back one goal. Still, betting is about a numbers game and the match really did seem destined for a 0-0 or a 1-1. My analysis was somewhat spot on - both teams struggled to break each other down, but Wigan played the better football especially in the 2nd half. I've got to start listening to the silent alarm bells... I mentioned in my post that I thought it strange that wigan was given the same odds as Everton even though they were playing at home. I questioned the Everton away trend and the Wigan home trend, and true enough those who had bet blindly thinking that Everton played amazing away and Wigan played crap at home would have been badly burnt. Past trends count for didly squat unless its backed up by solid logic.

24 November 2008

LOST -3

I'm glad to see that my analysis is bearing fruit, with 3 out of the 4 picks on Saturday spot on. The Chelsea one was not that far off, as no goals were scored at all, and even post-match it can be seen that there was probably a better chance of a goal scored in the 1st half than 2nd half, and at odds of 3+ it was a decent bet even if it did not win this particular time. However, it made me think that perhaps I'm a bit too generous betting with Chelsea as a supporter, so in future I will think twice before placing any Chelsea bets.


Match: Wigan vs Everton
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.33 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

This is a very tough game to call, and although I initially favoured Everton, taking them at the same odds of Wigan (who have home advantage) is a bit risky. Alot has been said in the media that "oh Wigan plays crap at home this season and Everton play good on the road therefore Everton must win" is poor analysis, as it really probably is just an abnormality and over time the home team has the overall advantage.

Having said that however, Wigan might be having Hesky, Zaki, Melchiot, and Koumas missing, and Boyce suspended, all very important players in the side and I can see them having trouble scoring goals tonight. Everton, however, have Fellani and Pienaar doubtful.

Wigan have trouble against attacking sides (e.g. Newcastle and Arsenal), but Everton isn't one, they play more organized and industrious football. Everton have been good this season, beating West Ham and drawing with Man Utd, but these are attacking sides, which Wigan is not. Against industrious sides like Fulham and Bolton, they only managed to win by a goal, some could say quite luckily too. Against Middlesbrough they drew the match 1-1.

Therefore I expect both sides to struggle against each other, and can see the match ending 0-0 or 1-1. Everton will have a hard time breaking down a sturdy Wigan side, especially if they have to put on a more defensive tactic if Hesky and Zaki won't be playing.

Small stakes, just for fun to keep the excitement while watching the match tonight on Setanta 1! Kickoff at 8pm.

22 November 2008

WON +10.37

After a rocky start, my picking has started to bear some fruit and even though I am still in negative territory I have complete faith that over time it will return to positive territory.

This weekend is especially hard to pick, what with the midweek friendlies playing havoc with all the teams involved. Of special concern is the trio at Man Utd that had to fly back from Brazil after a blistering match. With that in mind, two of this week's picks are underdog teams that should have more energy and preparation.

Match: Chelsea vs Newcastle
Pick: More goals in the 1st half
Odds: 3.1 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 8 units

The side only has one fit striker, Anelka, and he'll be his freshest in the 2nd half. Joe Cole will probably start, but he probably won't be able to last the whole match. With Kalou very likely to replace Anelka someway through the 2nd half if Chelsea is leading, I think most of the goals will be before the 50-60th minute, and odds of 3 for more goals in the first half seem generous. Especially since the new Chelsea give it their all right from the beginning. Newcastle have Owen back, but his match fitness is probably not 100% and he will be substituted at some point too. In which case Newcastle are hard pressed for other striking options.


Match: Manchester City vs Arsenal
Pick: Man City (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.5 (Skybet)
Stake: 5 units

Turmoil at Arsenal, Gallas being dropped for the match, and no Fabregas, Walcott, and perhaps Adebayor. Who's going to lead this side out and direct them on the field? I can't see them playing as a coherent unit against an attack minded Man City side. Plus with Gallas injured, Arsenal's fragile defence is like a house of cards. To be honest Man City had their own internal strife and Mark Hughes looks to be losing control of the team. But they have a strong squad at the moment and their performance against Hull was encouraging. This is a match where I'm choosing between two sides in trouble, but as these odds are likely to shorten tomorrow as more bad news about Arsenal leak out, its good to take some value.


Match: Portsmouth vs Hull
Pick: Hull +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.044 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Defoe and Diarra are rated 50/50 for the match, and Sol Campbell and Kranjcar are out already for Portsmouth. Their goalless draw with West Ham last weekend was frustrating, but without Defoe they will be missing a crucial striking option, and without Diarra as their rock in the midfield they risk being overrun by Hull, who are a pretty decent side. Hull Have shown they are no pushovers in the league, and their fighting spirit is very commendable. They have a full squad to choose from, although a worry is their 10 internationals maybe feeling some fatigue.


Match: Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Pick: Aston Villa +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Aston Villa are a quality side, and with the midweek rest for most of the squad, they'll be full of energy to play their pressing and high tempo game. Man Utd are in fine form of their own as well, but with many of their players coming back from internationals (especially the trio from Brazil) they might struggle to match Aston Villa in energy. Ferdinand is a doubt, and Berbatov is injured. Aston Villa will fancy their chances playing at home!

16 November 2008

PUSH +0

Match: Hull vs Manchester City
Pick: Man City (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.83 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 3 units

There wasn't much value in either of the two matches today, and I struggled to formulate any thoughts on the two matches. However, I decided that Man City has the better quality than Hull, and even with the turmoil in their squad they should perform better. Dunne is banned for this match, which might actually turn out to be a good thing because his performances of late haven't been that convincing. Hull have their own internal problems midweek, and with their strikers bickering they probably won't be in the right frame of mind today to score goals. This match could equally end 0-0 though, what with both teams distracted by off the pitch events.

I was surprised that Ladbrokes offered 1.83 for Man City Draw No Bet, even though they offered Man City -0 (AH) at only like 1.72, which is exactly the same bet!! What's more, 1.83 is alot higher than that offered by any other bookie and even Betfair, so its good to take a bit more value from the bookie.

A small bet of 3 units will satisfy the bet craving for today!

15 November 2008

WON +7.15

Apologies for the late posting... procrastinated last night and just remembered I haven't posted my selections up yet for today!

Match: Fulham vs Tottenham
Pick: Fulham (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.48 (Paddypower)
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have been high flying since Redknapp took over, but I suspect they will soon start to slack a bit and take wins for granted. Fulham on the other hand are a very solid team, especially at home, and I suspect they should be able to match Tottenham. These odds are juicy as everyone has been jumping on the Tottenham bandwagon and the bookies know that.

Match: Newcastle vs Wigan
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.82 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Why is this not lower? Wigan have trouble scoring, and Newcastle have a lack of striking options for this match too. Granted that both these teams are struggling and letting goals in, but mainly against sides that like to counter and go on the attack. Both these teams look like they might field more cautious formations and I wouldn't be surprised if the match ended 0-0.

Match: West Brom vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

Oh Chelsea. What a disappointment midweek against an average Burnley side who just played a simple game of frustrating and pressing. Unfortunately for West Brom, Scolari is a good manager who will rouse his players for this game. West Brom just struggles against good counter teams as they like the attack themselves, leaving them open. Frankly, if I was the manager I would park the bus in front of goal as that seems to work against Chelsea, but they will be playing attacking flowing football which definitely suits Chelsea.

12 November 2008

WON +9.95

Match: Tottenham vs Liverpool (Carling Cup)
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.99 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

There's been alot of media hype about this game, as Tottenham beat Liverpool 2-1 in somewhat astonishing circumstances. Their recent "revival" has also been a big talking point. I do agree that Tottenham are playing very fluidly now with some confidence, but Liverpool should have won that match, and are clearly the much better side.

All this will be thrown out of the window when they meet tonight as both managers will be looking to make some changes to give some first team players a rest. However, with Torres playing and Redknapp stating that he's keen to field a strong lineup, I believe attackers will be the star in this match. Tottenham's defence is still dodgy, and Liverpool's no better with the wholesale changes being rung tonight.

11 November 2008 Review

Nothing seems to be going my way! I know I sound like a mug punter, but every event looks like going against me. Even in the horse racing, where I pick out underdogs at odds of 8+, and out of the last 7 races, five have come in second place, so excruciatingly close to first place. I'm beginning to think that I have a talent for picking runners up, rather than the winner.

Tonight's bet of Stoke not winning sounds very hollow now. After reading the match report on Soccernet, it seems like Stoke dominated the game, and deserved to win, even though they had sent out their 2nd string side and Rotherham are playing very well actually in league 2. I guess I overestimated the strength of league 2 sides.

Anyways, there's nothing to do at the moment except learn from mistakes, and make smaller bets waiting for this bad streak to end. Tomorrow's Carling Cup matches throw up some juicy fixtures. I will be at the Chelsea match against Burnley, but there doesn't seem to be any value in there. The Tottenham vs Liverpool match seems promising, with my leaning towards Tottenham, but I will have to examine the team sheets and the managerial press conferences a bit more to see what sort of teams will be taking the field. Sunderland vs Blackburn also look like it might throw up something interesting (under 2.5?) but again I will have to assess tomorrow afternoon once there is more news.

11 November 2008

LOST -5.60

A few big Carling Cup matches today involving Premiership teams, but the odds all seem to be spot on and there are question marks on the underdogs even though the Premiership teams will be treating the games as 2nd rate and giving their reserves/youths a run out.

I will personally be at the Arsenal game watching the youths in Red take on what will probably be a full strength Wigan squad. Normally this would be the perfect opportunity to back Wigan as they are a decent Premiership team, but without Heskey, a poor 0-0 draw against Stoke over the weekend, and difficulty playing against teams with pace, passing, and attacking talent they will face huge difficulties against Arsenal's eager and talented youngsters. Of course it could go the other way with Wigan exploiting the young Arsenal side, but its a game to watch rather than to bet at those odds! Arsenal could end up winning 4-0, or Wigan could frustrate the youngsters and exploit naive vulnerabilities later on to win. A match that could go either way.

Manchester United's youngsters take on QPR. QPR should normally be backable as they are a solid Championship side. But their recent form and their "lucky" late win against 9 men Cardiff over the weekend does not instill confidence. Plus they are operating under a caretaker manager as well as finding goals hard to come by recently. Another no bet game here for me.

And we arrive at Stoke vs Rotherham. Stoke had a poor game against Wigan over the weekend, drawing 0-0, and only mustering 1 attempt on goal. Their poor performance was a result of infighting amongst themselves on the pitch. Plus, they will be missing some first team players through injury and cup-tiedness, and it is likely that Pullis will be rotating 6-10 players in his squad just as in the last Carling Cup game. Stoke's priority at the moment seem to be scrapping out points in the Premiership for survival, and the Carling Cup will be low on the list of priorities. Rotherham on the other hand will be looking to live up to their name as "giant killers" and have no new injury concerns from over the weekend. Worryingly they are at 21st place in League 2, but at these odds its worth having a small punt on Rotherham. One worry here is that Delap might play, which will immediately be a major concern, but hopefully Pullis gives him a rest and protects the team's greatest asset for the EPL.


Match: Stoke vs Rotherham
Pick: Rotherham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.43 (Betfair)
Stake: 5.60 units

8th November 2008

WON +2.40

Match: West Ham vs Everton
Pick: Everton (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.08 (Bet365)
Stake: 5 units

West Ham are playing poor at the moment as the euphoria of a new coach has worn off. They have lost some of their good defensive players (i.e. Ferdinand), and with Carlton Cole injured, they do lack some firepower up front.

Everton are solid, but they have left it late in the last 2 games to win. However, they are defensively solid. As they look like they lack ambition and the ruthlessness, this game could easily be a draw but I reckon the more likely side to win is Everton.

Race: Wincanton 2:50
Pick: Katchit
Odds: 4 (skybet)
Stake: 3 units

Solid runner, and although there are some other good contenders in the field I believe this horse is consistent and has a very experience jockey riding it again. Blythe has question marks, but Takeroc and Chomba Womba will provide strong challenges, but the price is quite good.

6th November Review

Damn, looks like the losing streak is going to continue for a while. I haven't watched the matches or read the reviews, but Aston Villa won 1-0 and Tottenham had a convincing 4-0 win, without their top players!

It looks like Tottenham is finally gelling and playing well, and Aston Villa are still eking out wins.

6th November 2008

LOST -10

Finally! One winning bet. As suspected Arsenal were lacking in options up front, completely giving up in the 2nd half. It didn't help that Fenerbahce were timid and didn't try to take advantage of the situation by trying to grab a goal. Man Utd will prove a tougher proposition this weekend, so even though its still too early I will probably be taking Man Utd to win or a draw.

Anyways, on to today's UEFA cup picks!

Match: Slavia Praha - Aston Villa
Pick: Slavia Praha DNB
Odds: *tbc*
Stake: 5 units

Aston Villa are playing really badly now. Their early season form was due to their high work rate and energy, but they really do look like a spent force when they played Monday and I can't see that improving having had to travel and only 3 days between games. Slavia Prague on the other hand are doing well in their domestic league, so in my eyes they're favorites to get something from this game.

Match: Tottenham - Dinamo Zagreb
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb +1.25 Asian Handicap
Odds: *tbc*
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have been invincible the last few matches with their new manager, but for this match they are missing alot of first team players who are cup tied, and will be light up front. Its a dangerous bet as they will be gung-ho with confidence flowing through their veins, but I think Dinamo have chances as well to grab goals and if they defend decently should be able to do well. Line is so high only because of Tottenham's miracles over the last few games!

Sorry that I am unable to enter odds, but I placed the bets in a hurry this morning before leaving for work and now at work I can't check my bets because all the betting sites are blocked.

5th November 2008

WON +5.25

Match: Arsenal vs Fenerbahce
Pick: Fenerbahce +1.5 Asian Handicap
Odds: 2.05 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

This looks like a cracking bet to me, although with my current form punters might want to stay well clear of my picks. Arsenal are playing poorly, and will not have Walcott, Adebayor, or Gallas for this game. Considering the first two are instrumental in attack and the latter in defence, Arsenal look ripe for the picking.

Fenerbahce haven't had the best of form so far, having lost 5-2 to Arsenal at home and drawing 2-2 in their last domestic game. Both teams look like they have shaky defences, and initial thoughts was for over 2.5 goals, but that line has been set at about 1.55 which is way too low for me to consider.

4th November 2008

-5 Units

Match: Roma vs Chelsea
Pick: Draw - Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 5.67 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

I know this looks like exactly the same bet as on Saturday, but I really can't find any other better value bet except for maybe Chelsea to win @ 2.2, but those are too low as the chance of a draw is a strong possibility.

I expect Roma to get bodies behind the ball, frustrating Chelsea. Ashley Cole is out, and Bridge deputizing means less forays down the left flank. Roma managed to contain Chelsea well the first match, and I think they will adopt the same tactic again, so I see goals in the 2nd half more likely than the first, and only for Chelsea to score. Totti is not back to full fitness so Roma will lack that creative spark to create goals.

3rd November Review

What can I say, I seem to be in a slump at the moment. I didn't get to watch most of the match, but only caught the last 15 minutes at a pub on the way home from work. What I saw shocked me. Newcastle were very slick at passing, and pressed very well, which showed glimmer of their form when they were good. Aston Villa on the other hand just didn't seem to have the passion to try to get a goal back. They kept pumping long balls up, and playing at a very slow tempo. I would have thought they would try to keep the ball on the ground, but instead they went for lobs.

Newcastle showed great teamwork and composure when they went 2-0 up, cleverly keeping possession and just passing the ball around, which to me says loads about the discipline instilled by Kinnear.

I am ashamed to say that I picked over 2.5 (although I'm sure there were chances that could have made it like that), but 2-0 was a fair result to Newcastle, and it looks like the jadedness and fatigue of Aston Villa is here to stay for a while.

3rd November Bets

LOST -5

Match: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.8 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

Both Aston Villa and Newcastle have good attacking players, but unfortunately their defences are lacking. Newcastle seems to have undergone a revival recently, but I still believe that their early season form was a result of their poor quality of defense, and think Aston Villa should be able to grab at least 2 goals in this match. Although Aston Villa looked jaded recently, this was because of their hectic schedule, and they have since had 4 days rest since Thursday for this game. Owen is close to making a return and should feature in the 2nd half, and I will be surprised if Newcastle can't get at least a goal of their own.

1st November 2008 Review

Well well. Every one of my first three bets lost. And as a responsible gambler, I won't be laying blame on luck or other things. I take full responsibility and blame for every bet I place, because in the end its my own money I'm wagering.

However, I do like to review any losing bets to learn from them. The best way to gain wisdom and knowledge is to learn from your mistakes.

Anyways, the first bet... Draw/Chelsea. I knew Chelsea would have the quality to win, but didn't expect Sunderland's usually reliable defense to crumble so easily.

In the WBA - Blackburn match, I do think that perhaps if Blackburn were not reduced to 10 men they would have won the match 1-0 or 2-0. It is just unlucky that there was a red card in this match, its almost impossible to predict.

Liverpool vs Tottenham. Liverpool were just too massive odds to resist. There was always the chance that Tottenham, riding on their high, would perform miracles in this match too. It so could have gone Liverpool's way, who had led through an early strike and had lots of chances after that to seal the game beyond doubt. What happened was a Tottenham revival that took advantage of Liverpool's complacency. Just typical Liverpool to screw up a match. Anyways, I still think that Tottenham are weak in defense, and against a well organized team with a clear strategy they will struggle. Liverpool on the other hand will probably struggle for a week or two, and then come back strongly when they wake up and smell the coffee.

Anyways, today I had a look at the Man City match. It was too hard to tell who would win, as Man City are probably the most inconsistent team in the EPL at the moment. True enough they lost 2-0 again. But on a good day they can win 3,4-0. So I will be avoiding them in the short term until they show some consistency!

1st November 2008 Picks

LOST -16

Tournament: English Premier League
Date: 1st November 2008

Pick: Draw/Chelsea (Half Time/Full Time)
Odds: 5 (William Hill)
Stake: 4 units

Chelsea have Carvalho out, and possibly Joe Cole as well. They will be lacking creativity up front, and Sunderland are quite well organized defensively. I think Chelsea will be able to find a way through, but Sunderland will be frustrating them in the first half by getting men behind the ball and not allowing Chelsea to play free-flowing football. Therefore I expect a draw at HT, but Chelsea to win it eventually.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals in WBA vs Blackburn
Odds: 1.85 (Bet365)
Stake: 4 units

Both sides have trouble scoring goals, and Blackburn will be sorely missing Santa Cruz and Warnock. WBA had some major concentration lapses in the midweek game, but I expect their manager to have worked on it during the last few days and I believe they should be more than capable to contain Blackburn.

Pick: Liverpool to beat Tottenham
Odds: 2.14 (Betfair)
Stake: 8 units

We get to the most exciting match of all! I really can't understand the pricing by the bookies. I watched Spurs' midweek miraculous draw against Arsenal, but it was just that... miraculous. They are still the same frail defense, and it has been shown that any team with a coherent organized defense is able to contain their weak strikers. Liverpool should win this, especially with their wingers causing havoc down the flanks and crossing balls in left and right.

Introduction

For over 6 years I have followed the English Premier League, mostly as a Chelsea fan but also professing admiration for Arsenal's slick passing and Man Utd's renaissance more recently.

I started betting just over a year ago, and after a year of learning, frustrations, and joy, I have decided that I should take a more serious approach because I believe I can make money on my knowledge of the EPL over the long run.

On this blog I will be posting all my bets, at least half an hour before kick-off. Eventually I will be adding horse racing bets as well, when I am confident that my skill in that "sport" is sufficient to pick up value.

As always, I advise anyone else reading this blog not to follow my picks/tips blindly, but to use my calls and opinions as a way to supplement your own. Please do feel free to post comments on my posts, as I am still learning and would love to hear opinions on my picks.

Best of luck to everyone, and may we all we wallowing in cash in the near future!