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To all my regular followers,

The Money Bonzai now has a new home, and a new, professional-looking website, at http://www.moneybonzai.info. Although Blogspot was the perfect place when I started out blogging about my football picks and analysis, it has now outgrown its purpose. By migrating to a professional-looking, fully customizable site, I will hopefully be able to deliver a much better service, as well as having the freedom to adapt my website to my needs over time.

I am therefore going to stop posting on this Blogspot blog, and every of my picks, analysis, and articles will be on the new MoneyBonzai.info website.

As always, the service will remain free for all!

Best of luck to everyone, and may we all continue to make money from the Bookies!

Everton to Fire Blanks

WON +3.60

A good win on Sunday takes it 3 out of 3 for the weekend! Newcastle were somewhat lucky, Tottenham deserved a draw I thought. But as I said, the Toons' attack is getting stronger by the game.

On to Monday's sole game:

Match: Everton vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea to keep a clean sheet
Odds: 2.20 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

A small bet, as from experience its always cautious to limit the stakes on betting markets where I don't have that much experience in. I might be good at picking AvB results, but when it comes to over/unders and speciality markets like clean sheets I like to play it safe.

For me this looks like outstanding odds, as Chelsea have a formidable defense and clean sheets in many of their recent games. To top it off Everton really have no strikers for this match, with Tim Cahill set to play as a makeshift one. That was alright against Man City, as their defense is crap, plain to see in Sunday's match against WBA. Chelsea are a whole different prospect.

I also expect David Moyes to set his side up more cautiously, maybe playing two deep midfield players to control Lampard and Deco. This will probably have the effect of "abandoning" Cahill, who will be up front on his own.

For me the odds of Chelsea keeping a clean sheet above evens is a must bet.

21 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +4.1

A very good Saturday, with both picks winning. Sunderland were amazing in their demolition of Hull, although they left it quite late. Aston Villa left it late too, and West Ham did match them for most of the match, but Villa just had that extra quality in the counter attacks that made them so dangerous. Very dodgy defending though and leaky midfield, so I will be looking to oppose Villa in the coming weeks.

Today, there are only 3 matches to choose from. The top one, of course, is Arsenal vs Liveprool, but after spending quite alot of time analyzing it I'm not going to have a bet. The reason is that the odds seem fairly priced, and I can't really see one team being very dominant over the other. I favour Arsenal, but their odds are too short for me to back against a Liverpool side that does as well on the road as at home.

Man City should be a banker against WBA, if you look at the quality on both sides. WBA don't even have a Premiership striker anymore, and will struggle to score. However, Man City have dressing room instability, and are poor of late. Also, Robinho is very doubtful for this match plus they have had to travel back from Spain on Friday. So another match to watch and observe for future weeks.

That only leaves the last fixture:

Match: Newcastle vs Tottenham Hotspurs
Pick: Newcastle win (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.82 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

Newcastle look like they are seriously shaping up and clicking together as a team. Their defense has become alot more solid in recent games, due to Kinnear imposing defensive training 4 days a week. In addition, as their attacking players come back to fitness, Owen has been getting a good supply of balls and rediscovering his deadly form. I believe Newcastle are on the cusp of turning their season around with a run of a few wins. Their 3-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend was a very convincing performance.

Tottenham have had their own revival too, but it looks to be running out of gas lately. There was the 2-2 draw midweek that followed the stalemate against Man Utd, where they didn't really create many chances. Only a few players were rested on Thursday, and it is a long way up to Newcastle. Spurs also have a defensive crisis, with King and Woodgate both big doubtfuls, and possibly no Modric, Lennon, and Jenas. Their makeshift rearguard did well last weekend, but that was against a Man Utd side that lacked any sort of incisveness.

20 December 2008 - Premier League

WON +11.06

This weekend is the start of the busy Christmas period, and every Premier League manager will be aching to get a win to start off the festive season with a bang.

Blackburn's game will be eagerly observed to see if Sam Allardyce manages to turn their fortunes around. However, Stoke are resolute, but most likely will not have Delap's long throws, which is a big blow. Definitely a match to miss.

Bolton take on Portsmouth at home, but last week's loss to Aston Villa was very poor defensively, and I'm afraid defensive frailty is something not easily cured. Portsmouth played midweek but rested a couple of players in their midweek win, but lost 3-0 against Newcastle last weekend in what was described as "football" poverty. Its hard to say if Bolton's recent troubles are a blip or something more serious, so another match to sit out.

Aston Villa travel to East London to play West Ham, who had a somewhat deserved draw against Chelsea. They are becoming very solidly defensively in the back, and now lack that cutting edge up front. However, against Chelsea they showed glimpses of their counter potency, which should do damage against a dodgy Aston Villa back line. Aston Villa themselves are a good attacking side, with their top players refreshed after the midweek UEFA cup flogging their defense suffered. I am seriously tempted to take the over 2.5 goals offered, but West Ham's defensive solidarity might frustrate Aston Villa like it did against Chelsea.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough was a match that I was initially interested on. I've been betting on Fulham the past two weekends luckily with DNBs. They do look like a determined side that has gelled, but maybe too much as they are defensively solid, but toothless in attack. Middlesbrough were quite impressive last week against Arsenal, but more is required to make this any sort of bet.

Which leaves me with two matches where I will be betting on:

Match: Hull vs Sunderland
Pick: Sunderland (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 2.75 (BlueSQ)
Stake: 5 units

I feel very confident about this pick. Hull are playing very well at the moment, taking the 2-0 lead at Liverpool before conceding two goals and drawing the match. However, the two goals were probably more to do with Liverpool's defensive errors than Hull's skill. They come into this match without McShane and Gardner, two crucial defenders. They also do not have Craig Fagan. Their manager has labelled this as a "tough game", and he is absolutely right. Sunderland on the other hand look like they've turned the corner, with a very spirited performance against Man Utd despite losing, and their 4-0 thrashing of WBA. They've always had good attacking skill, and were just unlucky in a couple of matches that led to Roy Keane's resignation. Now that skill is showing finally, and they will have no further injuries since last weekend. With newfound confidence, the squad will sense the urgency to get a couple more points to safety. Hull are way too short, even if they are playing at home.

Match: West Ham vs Aston Villa
Pick: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet)
Odds: 1.77 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

The Hammers had a pretty good display against Chelsea last week, but they were playing a side that had self doubts about doing well at home, plus they only did well the 1st half when Chelsea were lost playing a crappy formation without Drogba. 2nd half was different as Chelsea gained some urgency and played with pressure.

Aston Villa are full of confidence, with well rested top players, and now that they occupy 4th spot will have extra determination to consolidate that achievement. They were absolutely dominant against Bolton. Usually the fear here is that West Ham will park the bus in front of goal, but I think due to their optimistic draw at Chelsea last week, Zola won't be able to resist playing a more open tactic, which will only be to Villa's advantage. Cole and Bellamy are just not finding the net at the moment, while Agbonlahor is on a hot streak. Good odds for a side that many now consider to be better than Arsenal this season, against a side that, lets not forget, lost many of its top players over the summer.

18 December 2008 - UEFA Cup

WON +3.54

Match: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Spartak Moscow
Pick: Spartak Moscow +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.18 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Yesterday’s pick was horrible with hindsight. Aston Villa were dreadful as predicted, but surprisingly Hamburg were amazing, especially their strikers. The match just showed how shallow the Villa squad is, and Hamburg well deserved their 3-0 win. However, it was only 1 goal away from being a winning bet, so I won’t think about it too much.

Tonight I am also going for a small stakes bet, as the UEFA cup is not my speciality. Spurs have more or less secured qualification in the UEFA cup as long as they don’t lose by more than 2 goals. Spartak Moscow, however, need at least a draw and ideally a win to qualify. Their Russian domestic season has ended, so this is one last match they are playing before having a long winter break. They have been in London since last week acclimatising, and played a friendly game against Chelsea Reserves on Saturday. No doubt because of Abramovich’s connections, the coach will probably have been assisted by the Chelsea backroom staff in gathering info about Spurs.

Spurs will be playing a weakened squad, and are already suffering from many injuries as well as players being cup-tied, so it will be like the Aston Villa case last night. Spartak might not be the best team out there, but I believe they will give Tottenham a hard time and odds for Spurs are too low even if playing at home.

LOST -3

Match: Hamburg vs Aston Villa
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.79 (Betfair)
Stake: 3 units

Small stakes as I do not know Hamburg too well since I concentrate on the EPL. However, they seem to have struggled in their domestic league recently. Although winning in the last 2 games, they had to labour over Frankfurt to get their one goal lead. On top of that, about a week ago the manager remarked that his team was a bit tired and jaded, and probably looking forward to the long Christmas break they will be getting after this game.

Aston Villa on the other hand were amazing on the weekend, beating Bolton 4-1. However, less than 5 of the team that went out for that match will start this one, with Young, Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, and Laursen all left at home. These are Aston Villa's best players, and one could argue without the first 4 (and Carew, who is out injured), Aston Villa will look disjointed in attack and toothless. Indeed, Hamburg are no pushovers themselves, and will probably field their strongest team possible since they are getting a long break anyways. They are only 2 points behind the leaders in the Bundesliga, and clearly have a strong team.

So we have a team that has no credible attack, playing a tired and jaded team that is one win away from topping the Bundesliga domestically. On top of that both teams have qualified, with only top spot to play for. Quite a good chance that it will be unders.

14 December 2008 - Review

I think that is the worst bet that I ever picked. It was all looking good before kickoff, with the odds drifting tighter from 2.49 to 2.25, but I think Scolari showed today that he is actually a stubborn manager that cannot change when change is needed.

Drogba was fit to start from the beginning, but he stuck to playing Anelka as a lone striker, which just clearly doesn't work. It showed as Chelsea became alot better and potent in the second half after the introduction of Drogba. Worse still was the substitution of Joe Cole for Kalou, instead of taking the very poor Deco off. Deco looked like a robot, swinging in crosses that were right to the keeper and too high.

I can't blame the players or the teams for this bet, except for myself. I vowed a couple of posts ago never to blinded by my Chelsea bias, but I was again this time. West Ham got a fair goal, but to be honest spent most of the match defending.

Still simmering inside, but hopefully this mistake has taught me a valuable lesson.