30 November 2008

WON +0.4

A surprising result as all 3 picks won on Saturday! To be fair two of them (Fulham and Wigan) were somewhat lucky to win, with only the Bolton one well deserved. However, luck is all part of the betting game, and I take the bad with the good with the faith that over time I will make better educated bets.

This Sunday I'm off to Stamford Bridge to catch the match between Chelsea and Arsenal, in what will be a thrilling game. As a Chelsea fan it pains me to place bets against my own team, but the odds available were just too tempting.


Match: Tottenham vs Everton
Pick: Tottenham to win
Odds: 2 (William Hill)
Stake: 5 units

Tottenham have good players. We have seen what confidence has done to transform the side. And frankly, their last two games against NEC and Blackburn were assured performances in which they could have won by a greater scoreline than 1-0 and never looked likely to have lost. They had several players rested midweek (Pavyluchenko, Corluka, King, and Jenas) which should be a boost when they return for this match. Everton on the other hand have an attacking crisis, with Vaughan, Aniche, Pienaar, and Saha all injured and unavailable for this match. They were unlucky to lose to Wigan, but this was due to their lack of attacking edge even though they had the majority of possession, which is made worse by their injuries for this match. Take Tottenham here who are at nice odds to win at home.


Match: Chelsea vs Arsenal
Pick: Arsenal +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.08 (Betfair)
Stake: 5 units

What bollocks! The odds for a Chelsea win are even lower than a Man Utd win over Man City, whom we know are definitely not top 4 class yet. In addition, Chelsea seem to have hit a stumbling block recently. Even though their recent results haven't been a disaster, they look like reverting back to the boring Mourinho-era side, not the sexy creative Scolari side we saw earlier this season. Increasingly, they look unable to create quality chances in the final third. They are starting to be like Arsenal; without Drogba, they have no plan B if their plan A doesn't work. Arsenal have been going through their own rough patch recently, but with Fabregas as the new captain and a decent performance midweek, they will rise to the challenge against Chelsea as they know they cannot afford to lose any more points in the title chase. They will be boosted by the return of Adebayor, Nasri, and Sagna, which should give them a good attacking edge. Chelsea should be closer to like 2.3 or 2.3 for the win, and not 1.85, and for that reason the Asian Handicap for Arsenal look a good bet.

29 Novenber 2008 - EPL

WON +7.52

Right, back to the regular matches, and time to put behind the midweek debacle and get back to winning ways. Saturday sees 5 matches played, with not many bets that stand out. I believe the bookies are getting better and better at setting the lines and odds, and with none of the teams showing any great form any pick feels like a lottery.

With that in mind, I am only going to have 3 small bets for Saturday to keep the interest going.

Match: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Pick: Fulham +0.75 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.09 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 2 units

Villa look too short against a strong and stable Fulham side. They impressed with a win over Arsenal and a draw against Man Utd, but they do seem to struggle against teams that are physical and play a pressing game. Fulham are just that team, having beaten Tottenham and drawn with Liverpool, both teams that play very similar to Aston Villa. Both managers have a full squad to choose from and the benefit of a midweek rest, so I expect a lot of midfield battles and start/stop play as Fulham frustrate Aston Villa. Martin O’Neill has stated that this will be a difficult game, and frankly I’m surprised the odds for Villa are at 1.66. Take the Fulham handicap here!


Match: Wigan vs West Brom
Pick: Wigan
Odds: 1.83 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3 units

In the other match, Wigan have way too much class against West Brom, although they haven’t been able to realize it so far this season. They are without Zaki, which is a blow, but they welcome back Boyce and Melchiot to strengthen their defence. West Brom, on the other hand, pretend like they are Arsenal and try to play passing football, but without the skill or the talent they fall well flat. Wigan’s defence should hold up strongly, and the only doubt is that Wigan’s attack is hit or miss at times.


Match: Sunderland vs Bolton
Pick: Bolton +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
Stake: 3 units

I wasn't intending to pick this last one, but upon further analysis it does like Bolton are finding some kind of form and are better than their odds suggest. Sunderland are poor, and I believe its a problem on the managerial level with no quick fix solution. It will be a tight match for sure, but somehow I see Bolton grinding out a small win or a draw here.

27 November 2008 Review

Oh my God. What a game.

Milan had a whole host of chances in the 1st half, and really should have led. However, their slackness and non-urgency punished them badly. Portsmouth went 2-0 up, and Milan looked like a side that had given up. Inzaghi hit the post THREE times, and it just seemed like it was not going to be their night.

Then Ronaldinho comes out of nowhere and scores a trademark free kick from some distance out, and suddenly Milan are back in the game. One horrible defensive error from Portsmouth allowed Inzaghi to collect a pass in the middle of the penalty box, and with a class striker like him the goal was a done deal.

I am just so frustrated because I came so close to winning, and probably should have, in my opinion. Milan should have wrapped up the first half leading 1-0, instead Portsmouth gained confidence and Milan had doubts if anything would go their way this night. Horrible 3 bet losing streak at the moment, and hopefully this weekend will produce some bets to snap it.

27 November 2008 - UEFA Cup

LOST -5

Last night's two picks were nothing less than embarassing. Chelsea went draw/draw, and didn't even look like remotely scoring in the 1st half. Liverpool started out brightly and grabbed a goal, but were content to sit back and let Marseille pressure. The French side were very wasteful, and if they had equalized no doubt a third goal would have come easily when Liverpool push back. Sadly it ended 1-0.

I've got to learn to be patient and do more no bets. The analogy here would be playing tight in poker and folding most hands pre-flop.

Tonight, however, I've spotted one good value bet.

Match: Portsmouth vs AC Milan
Pick: AC Milan
Odds: 2.25 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 5 units

Milan are definitely a class above Portsmouth, and although they will be resting some 1st team players like Ronaldinho, they have alot of class especially in midfield. They like to play a passing game, and comments about the pitch being suited for that is reassuring, as players saying that they have now almost reached top gear as a team. Their recent form is a bit worrying, but they are against a Portsmouth side that will be missing Defoe, Diarra, and most likely Kranjcar and Campbell. Tony Adams has talked down the hype of this game, and the opinion is that he is concentrating on getting league results rather than pushing an uphill battle to try to get to the next round of the UEFA Cup. In fact, their squad is rather thin, and Adams would be hard pressed to make any meaningful substitutions during the game if the need arises. Milan, on the other hand, will be able to introduce their big guns from the bench if things don't go their way.

Victory will ensure Milan qualify, and they should definitely have the class here to do that. Plus the odds are rather nice because in European competitions, the odds of English clubs are always too short.

26 November 2008 - Champions League 2

LOST -8

Yesterday's pick was extra satisfying, as not only did it win comfortably (only 1 goal, and a late goal at that!) but because my analysis was somewhat spot on. Arsenal did struggle a bit and Dinamo Kiev just didn't look threatening either, although both sides did have many good chances.

Tonight Chelsea and Liverpool are involved in Champions League action, but the picking is hard, even harder than yesterday's.

Chelsea looks like they are a class above Bordeaux, and normally should have no problems winning easily. However, they are thin on the bench and their weakness is if they get nothing out of their gameplan A, then they have no plan B. Therefore if Bordeaux manage to frustrate The Blues until half time, chances are Chelsea will lose the will to win. The game at Cluj comes to mind as a fine example. Therefore if Chelsea are not leading at HT, they're unlikely to win FT, but if they are leading at HT they have enough resolve to hold on to that lead till FT. Therefore, the outstanding bet here is Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT) at 2.87, as its virtually the same bet as an outright Chelsea win at 1.8.

Match: Bordeaux vs Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea/Chelsea (HT/FT)
Odds: 2.875 (Coral)
Stake: 3 units

Liverpool take on Marseille, and they will be looking to channel their frustration of drawing last weekend into securing passage into the next round of the CL. Torres and Gerrard will be reunited from the start, with plentiful of striking options in Kuyt and Keane. Furthermore, they will be well rested and full of energy as they're had 4 days since Saturday. Marseille, on the other hand, are a very poor side, with a porous defence. However, they do boast one of the most prolific strike force in Ligue 1, and need to get a result of their own from this match. They are not one to sit back and park the team bus in front of the goal. I am surprised that the line has been more or less set at 2.5, so here I will take the opportunity to go for over 2.5 @ evens instead of the stingy 1.44 on offer for a Liverpool win.

Match: Liverpool vs Marseille
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 5 units

25 November 2008 - Champions League

WON +3.3

Match: Arsenal vs Dinamo Kiev
Pick: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.1 (SkyBet)
Stake: 3 units

There are two schools of thought for this game. One is Arsenal will bounce back and do a 6-0 and show their class. The other is that they'll disintegrate once again and lose embarassingly. I subscribe to neither opinion, as the first is flawed seeing how they have so many first team players missing, and the second is equally fantasy as Dinamo just don't have the quality. What I see if a Dinamo side well rested (no game over the weekend), and will probably press and frustrate Arsenal. The Gunners have a lack of first team quality with all their injured players, and will struggle to create chances as usual. A Gallas led backline should be able to deal with Dinamo's 2nd rate attack, especially if they play with a lone striker up front. Odds are just too good in this situation to pass up!

Wigan vs Everton Review

It was so frustrating as Everton could have definitely pulled back one goal. Still, betting is about a numbers game and the match really did seem destined for a 0-0 or a 1-1. My analysis was somewhat spot on - both teams struggled to break each other down, but Wigan played the better football especially in the 2nd half. I've got to start listening to the silent alarm bells... I mentioned in my post that I thought it strange that wigan was given the same odds as Everton even though they were playing at home. I questioned the Everton away trend and the Wigan home trend, and true enough those who had bet blindly thinking that Everton played amazing away and Wigan played crap at home would have been badly burnt. Past trends count for didly squat unless its backed up by solid logic.